Comments on: Lake Martin Home Prices Not Affected By Sales Drop?

By: Lake Martin Voice » Blog Archive » Lake Martin Drought of 1941 Was Worse than 2007

Tue, 17 Jun 2008 22:44:35 +0000

[...] Look at the numbers. As I have said before, you have to be careful when interpreting statistics in our market. It is relatively small in [...]

By: Lake Martin Voice » Blog Archive » Proof Of End Of Sellers’ Market On Lake Martin

Mon, 23 Jul 2007 17:17:00 +0000

[...] 2. Look at the numbers. As I have said before, you have to be careful when interpreting statistics in our market. It is relatively small in transaction number (when comparing to large cities like Atlanta). But, to make a market opinion, you must look at market statistics, so I try to consider a year of data at a time. The goal is to take emotion – and agenda – out of the equation. Just the facts, ma’am. [...]

By: John

John — Tue, 27 Mar 2007 04:53:37 +0000

Amen Erin! Lake Martin property owners would do well to forgo emotion, check the numbers, and then go with it. Watch out for paralysis by analysis.

By: erin

erin — Tue, 27 Mar 2007 01:28:01 +0000

Interesting post. I think over-analyzing the data in any real estate market, big or small, is not a smart move, and when there’s so much speculation about a “housing bubble”, the slightest shift in data can send you over the edge.

By: John

John — Tue, 13 Mar 2007 21:44:38 +0000

Here is the text from my email to Patrick McCreless of the Alex City Outlook:

Patrick – I enjoyed your article. I would suggest, however, that one must carefully interpret any statistics, especially in our real estate market. For instance, the “drop” in average home prices in January vs. December I think is more related to the % of waterfront homes sold in each month. In January 2007 (by my count) there were only 5 out of 29 (or 17%) homes sold that were waterfront residences in the Lake Martin Area. In December 2006 there were 10 out of 25 (40%). Since our MLS includes houses and land sold off of Lake Martin, and since waterfront homes are priced exponentially higher than similar non-waterfront homes, I think the lower average sold price in January is directly related to this difference. It also shows me that interpreting analysis of market data in a small market like ours is tricky. We have so few transactions as compared to the bigger markets like Birmingham, Montgomery, or Mobile. In our low transaction market, five homes sold or not sold can swing the market averages dramatically.

Please feel free to read further on my real estate blog – http://www.LakeMartinVoice.com.

Thanks,

John