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Archive for the 'Market Statistics' Category

Debunking the Labor Day Price Drop Myth

I am proud to be a monthly contributing writer to Lake Magazine. I have been writing for them for a little over a year now, and I have really enjoyed it. One unexpected result is that I tend to write about Lake Martin real estate market reports on there a little more than I suspected, which could mean that some readers here might miss them.

Once such example is an article I wrote for the September issue of Lake, where I studied the question:

Do sellers of Lake Martin waterfront homes drop their prices after Labor Day?

I hear that question a lot this time of year and I always say, not necessarily.  If you would like to read the entire article, please click here for a link to it at Lake Magazine.

The most surprising thing to me when I wrote it was the overall rising trend in sales price to list price over the last three years.  I would like to think that this is due to a couple of factors:

1. More accurate pricing from Lake Martin realtors – Sometimes I wonder exactly where agents are coming up with their pricing for lake homes or lots. I have certainly missed my share of estimations over the years, but I do have to scratch my head sometimes when I see listings that I believe are twenty and thirty percent over priced. Maybe they know something I don’t. But one interpretation of this chart to me is that listing agents are getting more accurate to begin with when they and the seller agree on a listing price.

2. Strengthening prices in waterfront homes? Traditionally, the sales price divided by list price statistic is oft quoted by economists as an indicator of the strength of any real estate market. I do not – I repeat do not – think the above is a sign that home prices have risen. In fact, this post of market reports shows you I think prices were steady in 2010 and 2011. But I do think it is a positive sign.  I really look forward to January or February when I run the same sets of calculations for 2012.

 

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July Sales Cool On Lake Martin

July waterfront home sales on Lake Martin, Alabama, saw a dip as compared to last year.  In July of 2012, 20 waterfront homes were sold on Lake Martin, whereas in July 2011, 26 sold.

If you have been around Lake Martin this summer, you know that we have had some hot and dry weather. But if you have been searching for a home and watching the market, apparently that did not translate into hot home sales for July. When I am judging any month’s sales numbers, I always compare it to the same month of the previous year.  So far, 2012 has been pretty consistently beating 2011.  There was a slight stumble in April, however. But the next month, the sales came roaring back with a May that crushed any previous month since 2006.

Even though Lake Martin had a weak July, for the year, we are still ahead of the previous year. Through July in 2011, there were 129 waterfront homes sold. This year there are 137 sold. I don’t think it’s time to hit the panic button quite yet.

Also, we need to remember May. We had a huge comeback in May 2012 after a lackluster April. Will this happen again in August? We can take some clues from how many sales are pending in the Lake Martin MLS right now.  At this writing, there are 37 waterfront home sales pending, and we’re in the middle of the month.

August Savior?

It’s my theory that we will have a huge August, and will correct the tepid July.  I think the Lake Martin real estate market will continue to pace above last year. I base this on the sheer momentum of sales going on right now, and the fact that in a small market like ours you sometimes have swings month to month in sales.

Related Posts:

June Home Sales Jump
Lake Martin Lot Sales 2011

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2011 – Year In Review

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010 – Lot Sales
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by   FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.

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June Home Sales Jump at Lake Martin

The waterfront real estate market on Lake Martin, Alabama, continued its hot streak into June.  Twenty three homes were sold in June of 2012, versus 22 in June of 2011.

Last week I was doing some macro economic type research for a buyer that was interested in a home in the Preserve at Stoney Ridge.  He asked me how waterfront home sales on Lake Martin looked so far this year, and I responded that I thought we had a really good chance to have a spectacular year, one that may even rival 2006. Lake Martin real estate sales are definitely tracking to beat last year, a widely viewed indicator of market health.

According to the Lake Martin MLS*, the twenty three homes that were sold in June 2012 brings this year’s total to 116.  That is well above the 103 that 2011 had through June, and certainly the 91 in 2010.  In fact, we must go back to 2006′s total of 153 through June to see a competitor for this year’s pace.

Speaking of pace, it is only going to get faster when I report July 2012 sales. Judging from the number of homes that have already closed in the MLS for July, and then adding in some that might have actually closed but the agent has not changed their status yet, I think July 2012 will easily beat July 2011.

Then you can add in to the numbers some anecdotal evidence: everyone is busy.  Realtors will always tell you they are busy, of course.  But when I ask people like closing attorneys and home inspectors, and they tell me that they are over scheduled – I pay attention.

A Word On Status In The Lake Martin MLS

Many, many of the readers of this blog use the home search function (link at the top of the page) to constantly look around Lake Martin for a waterfront home, lot, or condo. I am super proud to be a major source of data for thousands of visitors to my site.

I often am asked,

Q: What does the “status” field mean in the Lake Martin MLS?

A: In the Lake Martin MLS, any time you look up the detailed info for a waterfront property for sale, it gives you one of these possible status indicators: 1.Active, 2. Cancelled, 3. Closed, 4. Expired, 5. Pending, or 6. Withdrawn. Here are my lay definitions of each:

  1. Active – this property is “For Sale” right now. Wide open.
  2. Cancelled – this property has been taken off of the market permanently. (At least until the seller decides to use another Lake Martin agent).
  3. Closed – sold – an offer has been made, accepted, contingencies worked out – and the sale has closed and ownership has changed hands. When I am trying to help sellers get an idea of what their property may be worth, I only consider “Closed” properties.
  4. Expired – this property did not sell during the listing period, and the listing has expired. No longer Active.
  5. Pending – Pending means that a buyer and seller have come to a written agreement on a contract to sell the property, but they are still in the period before closing when things like home inspections and title work are being done.
  6. Withdrawn – kind of like Cancelled but it could be a temporary thing. I think in our MLS an agent can take a property off of the Withdrawn list and re-activate it, but not so for Cancelled. To be honest, I am not sure why we have both Withdrawn and Cancelled.

I hope this helps in your search of the Lake Martin MLS. For more help on how to effectively search for your waterfront property on Lake Martin, feel free to call me at 334-221-5862 or by a contact form by clicking here or click here to go watch video tutorials I made about how to search.

 

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Lot Sales 2011
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2011 – Year In Review

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010 – Lot Sales
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by   FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.

 

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Market Report May 2012

The Lake Martin real estate market had a smashing May, tallying 32 waterfront homes sold! This is the highest number of homes sold in six years, since May of 2006.

In this real estate market report I wrote for Lake Magazine, I noted that according to the Lake Martin MLS*, April 2012 had a relatively weak number of waterfront homes sold. I wondered if this was a signal that the Lake martin market was slowing down, or if this is a mere timing thing, setting the table for an explosive May.

It seems the latter was correct. 32 waterfront homes sold in one month is a lot for a little market like Lake Martin. Please note these numbers encompass all brokerages, all agents, in the Lake Martin MLS.

How good is 32?

To help put it into perspective, I looked at each month’s sales history since January, 2005. I found that May 2012 was the best home sales month on Lake Martin since 33 was sold in May of 2006. Think of that – the last time we have seen sales like this was in a confirmed seller’s market of 2006.

Also, another way to view this month is to ask this question:

Q: Since January of 2005, how many times has the Lake Martin real estate market exceeded 30 waterfront home sales per month?

A: Just six. That’s right, over the last 54 months, including the blistering years of 2005 and 2006, Lake Martin has exceeded 30 only six times: May 2012, August 2009, the above mentioned May 2006, and three times in 2005.

I think this proves that April 2012′s weak showing of 14 Lake Martin waterfront homes sold was an aberration, a timing issue. Of course, the same could be said about May, but I doubt that is really the case. As I write this, there are 23 home sales pending in the Lake Martin MLS and 17 recorded as sold since June 1. In other words, June is setting up to be a good sales month as well, very likely to beat the prior year’s June total of 22 homes sold.

If we step back and look the cumulative total number of waterfront homes sold on Lake Martin so far this year, we see that 93 homes have sold. Once again, this is the best five month start since 2006.

Lake Martin Lot Sales 2012

Lake Martin waterfront lots are also selling well so far in 2012. In May, 10 lots were sold, which was the best since 10 sold in April 2011. Other than last year, we have not seen that many lots sold since 2005.

Supply Side

When I first started blogging about Lake Martin real estate way back in 2007, I always included the numbers of waterfront homes for sale on Lake Martin. Every month I trotted out the supply. But, it got rather tedious so I stopped doing it every month, only mentioning it once per quarter or so. I don’t really know why. Maybe it was because it frustrated me to see the number of homes for sale keep rising when the Lake Martin market was in an obvious shift to the buyer’s side of the equation. I don’t know.

I do think it bears a look now, in light of the sustained sales.  I took a look at the number of waterfront homes for sale on Lake Martin in the last few years. It has been dropping quite a bit. If we use the month of May as an example, we see that in May of 2009 there were 589 homes for sale on the MLS. May of 2010 saw it drop to 492, then drop to 476 in 2011. In May of 2012 it was only 411. That is a 30% decrease in supply in three years. True, that percentage fluctuates based on which month you consider. It also is true that many more condos were for sale back then, but I looked at the condo effect in this post and it wasn’t all that big an influence in sales.

If supply stays low and sales continue on this trend, could 2012 be a year of actual price increases?  I’m not willing to go out on that limb.  Yet.

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Lot Sales 2011
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2011 – Year In Review

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010 – Lot Sales
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by   FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.

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Outlook Writes About Lake Martin Foreclosures

I was honored to be interviewed April 9th for an Alex City Outlook article on waterfront foreclosures around Lake Martin.

Jessica Hargett called me to ask me how foreclosures are going around the lake.  When I started spitting out stats from 2011, she had to interject and let me know that she was curious about 2012.  OK, if 7% of sales last year were foreclosures, what about this year?, she asked.

Me:  “Uhhh.. hang on.  I don’t know.”

It turned out that when she called, I had not run any reports for 2012 sales yet. In fact, her questions were the impetus for the research that generated this blog post about 2012 waterfront sales on Lake Martin, so I thank her for that.

Much of what I talk about in the Alex City Outlook article I cover in my Market Report, while it does bear repeating that I was surprised that so many sales in the first quarter of 2012 were foreclosures, I just don’t think it will last. I will be the first to admit I am wrong, but I just don’t see enough supply to hold at such a high percentage. My wild guess is that foreclosures will once again ring in at 7% of the waterfront sales market on Lake Martin, just like 2009, 2010, and 2011.

If you would like to see the current list of foreclosed waterfront homes and lots for sale on Lake Martin, please CLICK HERE and fill out the form and I can email it to you.

If you have already received the link in the past, no need to request it again.  That list is auto-populated from the Lake Martin MLS, just save it in your web browser’s favorites and check it whenever. It’s always current.

I think the Alex City Outlook is a great resource for Lake Martin news, and encourage you to follow them on Twitter, Facebook, the web, or however you choose to absorb news.

 

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Lake Martin Market Report: First Quarter 2012

Lake Martin, Alabama, waterfront home sales continue the hot streak of 2011 by posting 43 homes sold in the first quarter of 2012.

I studied the Lake Martin MLS* to see how the home sales have been in the first three months of the year. Personally, this is the best January, February, and March that I have ever had, praise the Lord. But I wondered if my experience was atypical. Generally, Lake Martin home sales are coolest in the cool months, so what was the rest of the market doing?

A quick look at the numbers in the Lake Martin MLS, which includes all agents, all Lake Martin real estate brokerages, shows that in January of 2012, 12 waterfront homes were sold, in February of 2012 it was 11, and 20 homes were sold in March of 2012 for a total of 43. This number was the best since 2007′s 43 and almost equaled 2006′s 46.

Lake Martin Real Estate Trends for 2012

What does this mean? Is this brisk pace a good omen for Lake Martin sales in 2012? It’s too early to tell, I think. If you look at 2007, which had an equally good start, the drought and the real estate bubble bursting combined to crash the market that year. However, in 2006, a great first quarter signaled a great, but declining, sales market. We just won’t know until we have more data.

But the good news is that one thing is sure – this strong quarter shows us that the sales momentum from 2011 has continued.

Lake Martin Waterfront Foreclosures Update For 2012

The other day Jessica from the Alex City Outlook called me to interview me about foreclosures in the Lake Martin area. She asked me if I felt that foreclosures were increasing, decreasing, or staying the same. My first instinct was to say that they have stayed steady, based on this post where I detailed foreclosure trends for the last three years.

However, I looked at the numbers just in case, and was surprised.

Of the 43 waterfront homes sold through the Lake Martin MLS in the first three months of this year, 13 were listed as foreclosures. That’s 30%! Way over the 7% in each of 2009, 2010, and 2011. What does this mean? Is this finally the “huge flood of foreclosures” that we have been hearing about?

I don’t think so. I think it is merely pent up supply and a coincidence that they all fell in the same quarter. I base that opinion on the fact that there are only 12 other waterfront homes listed as foreclosures that are for sale right now out of 379 total homes for sale. That’s only 3% of the supply.

Wait a minute, you might say. Maybe the foreclosures are selling at a higher proportionate rate. Maybe they are the better deals and will be sold first, thereby skewing the market down.

Perhaps, you might be right. But I think we still need more data to be sure. Remember, the first two months of the year historically are some of our lowest sales totals. It doesn’t pay to draw too many conclusions.

Let’s be happy for a strong three months of sales on Lake Martin, but let’s reserve prognostication until we have a few more months under our belts. And since we don’t wear belts much around here, I guess I should say the elastic band on our swim suits.

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Lot Sales 2011
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2011 – Year In Review

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010 – Lot Sales
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by   FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.

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Lake Martin Foreclosure And Condo Sales In 2011

Here I continue my series of posts of the waterfront property sales results of 2011 on Lake Martin, Alabama. Earlier I have looked at residential sales in general, and yesterday I covered waterfront lot sales.

Today I would like to cover the effect of foreclosures and condominiums had on Lake Martin property sales in 2011.

Lake Martin Foreclosure Sales In 2011

The economists that advise shows like The View are a constant source to reassure us that the real estate market is terrible everywhere.  They would have us believe that everyone in the nation is either in foreclosure, about to be foreclosed, or at the very least in a short sale.   I find that hard to believe, though.  I am sure that Whoopi and the gang consult with experts before they make broad, potentially very misleading comments about the economy.

However, here at Lake Martin we are well past the bottom of our market. I have blogged about this in the past. We have not seen a heavy percentage of our sales being foreclosures as in other markets.  But I thought I would put a number to it, and see if my generalizations are correct.

Low Percentage: 7% Were Foreclosures

I combed through all of the residential waterfront sale for the last three years.  I had to look at the “Owner” field in our MLS and just sort of guess whether they were foreclosures or not.  This makes you inherently dependent on the listing agent to have entered correct info, but the same can be said for any aspect of the MLS.  I think it’s materially correct.

I found that, sure enough, the Lake Martin waterfront real estate market had a relatively low percentage of sales that were foreclosures, REOs, or bank owned, however you want to phrase it.  Fifteen were sold in 2011, equaling 7% of the market.  Fourteen, or once again 7%, sold in 2010. Another fourteen or 7% sold in 2009.  Comparatively, that is a very low percent of sales.

Just to put it into perspective, according to this article in the AJC on November 29, 2011,  about 30% of home sales in Atlanta are foreclosures.  That is more than four times the rate on Lake Martin.  Ouch.

Lake Martin Condo Sales In 2011

It’s pretty natural to talk about Lake Martin condo sales for 2011 after the foreclosure section. This is because most of the condo sales in the last three years on Lake Martin were sort of foreclosures.

By sort of foreclosures, I am referring to two condo complexes: Crowne Pointe and Stoneview Summit. Both of these developments were taken back by banks, and then finished out by the banks and then sold. So they were not foreclosures in the traditional sense, but neither were they straight up civilian seller situations.
total 2011: 37 – 2010: 33, 2009: 59

Stoneview Summit sold 17 condos in 2010 and 17 in 2011. This was good for 46% of all waterfront condo sales in 2011 and 52%.in 2010. Crowne Pointe sold 43 condos in 2009, which accounted for 73% of all sales.

This high percentage of sort of foreclosures produced the highest pricing pressure for any other market segment. I think that Lake Martin condo prices dropped lower than homes and lots.

Looking Ahead

I don’t think the condo market’s prices will get any better for 2012. At this writing, there are 79 waterfront condos for sale right now on Lake Martin, and 20 of them are in Stoneview Summit.

The good news is that there are no condo developments being built in the forseeable future, so perhaps that will give them a couple o more years to sell off current inventory.

What About Your Property?

I have been blabbing a lot about the market in general. Do you wonder how all this applies to your home or lot? Or maybe you are searching for your own spot on Lake Martin and would like me to tailor these market reports to help you.

If so, please email me with this contact form or at [email protected] or call me at 334 221 5862. I would be honored to try and help.

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Lot Sales 2011
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2011 – Year In Review

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010 – Lot Sales
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by   FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.

 

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Lake Martin Waterfront Lot Sales 2011

Waterfront lots sold well at Lake Martin in 2011.  We the members of the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors MLS* reported 39 waterfront lots were sold, which was 44% better than 2010 and more than double the total sold in 2008.

If you missed my Lake Martin Year End Review 2011 post where I covered the basics of homes and condos sold last year, please click here.  Back to lots …….

Last year when I covered Lake Martin’s waterfront lot sales for 2010 in this post, I called 2010 the comeback year for lot sales. Any time you have a 42% increase (19 to 27), that’s a comeback. 2011 posted another huge gain – 44% – over last year. I guess that is a Secretariat-eque, shut the competition down, stretch run.

Lake Martin Waterfront Lot Prices

The next thing I wondered about Lake Martin’s lot sales was the price distribution. What are lot prices like? The careful reader knows that I confess an almost prideful love of the lovely bell curve that the line chart of homes sales prices makes. Does the phenomenon repeat itself with lot sales?

Sadly, no. I tried for like 2 hours to make an informative yet pretty and easily readable chart to display Lake Martin lot sale price distribution. I could not make it work. My chart skills with Apple’s Numbers program are lacking and I just don’t think such a small sample works. I guess maybe I have to break the sales bands down to a very small increment, say $20,000. But that felt like I was imposing a result on the chart, instead of just following where the numbers led me, so in the end I decided to merely post the chart with the source data. It is pretty easy to read, anyway.

I also think that when you have a small sample pool as we do with waterfront lots, it makes better sense to drill down to examples rather than looking at macroeconomic trends.

Lake Martin Lot Sales Trends

When I look at the sales results since 2008, I think that I see the greatest change in the price range of $150k – $199k, and then also in the $350k – $449k range.  Those price bands jump out at me as the ones with the most relative increase in sales.

The $150k – $199k range didn’t really surprise me.  That is the meat of the market and one would expect good sales there in any good year. The spurt of 9 sales in the $350k – $449k range is interesting and worth a closer look.

It turns out, as I expected, that all nine of them are in deed restricted neighborhoods with covenants. That is not too surprising in that most people that buy a high end lot on Lake Martin would like the protection of neighborhood covenants.  True, there is a fair contingent of lot buyers who chafe at the yoke of Architectural Review Committees, but apparently at this price range most prefer it.

Also, of the nine waterfront lots sold in this range, seven were in neighborhoods developed by Russell Lands. Does this mean lot buyers seek out their lots? I can’t tell for sure, but I doubt it. I think it is simply a function of numbers.  Most Lake Martin lots above $200,000 are in Russell Lands neighborhoods, so odds are that they will show up in the sales results.  For this particular range of $350k – $449k, four were in The Ridge, two were in Willow Point, and one was in River Oaks to round out the seven.  The two that were not in Russell Lands developments consisted of one in Marina Marin and the other in a small neighborhood called The Overlook on Lake Martin.  It is off of Old Tree Road near Martin Dam.

Effect Of Neighborhoods On All Lot Sales

Next I began to wonder about all of the waterfront lot sales on Lake Martin.  How many of them are in deed restricted neighborhoods? How many lot sales were the quintessential quaint country lot, free of covenants, where every man is his own master?

The answer is –> not many.  Of the 39 waterfront lots sold on Lake Martin in 2011, only 9 of them appear to be free of covenants and are outside of neighborhoods.  Now, I must alert you to a huge warning – I am only guessing at their restrictions here.  Of those 9, maybe some do have restrictions and I just can’t tell from the MLS or from prior knowledge.  But of the 30 that I counted as having covenants, those I am positively sure that they are in neighborhoods.

Interestingly, the highest price lot sale that was outside of a neighborhood was $300,000.  There were two in the $150k – $200k range, but the rest were under $150k.

A last thought - being inside a neighborhood doesn’t guarantee a high sale price. The lowest priced lot sold in 2011 was in River Oaks, a Russell Lands development, and sold for $45,000.  Before you ask – yes, it was in the back of a slough and had minimal waterfront and minimal water depth.  I referenced it when a builder called me yesterday.  He wanted to spend $50,000 for a lot, but it had to have year round water, a good view, and over 100 feet of shoreline on a private lot.  Sorry, I said.  Not going to happen.

Effect of Foreclosures on Lake Martin Lot Sales

How many of the lots sold on Lake Martin in the last two years were bank owned, REO, or foreclosures? Was this responsible for the sales increases?

I think the answer is not so much.  Sixty six waterfront lots were sold from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2011.  I searched the owner name on all of these and eleven appeared to be foreclosures.  The reason I had to make guesses on owner names is that in our MLS, we didn’t have a field marked “Foreclosure” until 2011.  Going forward we will be able to search by that field. But since this included 2010, I had to guess at the owner name and trust that the listing agents had them right.

Eleven foreclosed lots out of 66 gives us about 17%.  While that is higher (I think) than the percentage of foreclosed waterfront homes that were sold, it’s not that much higher.  My gut tells me that only about 10% of homes sold in 2011 were foreclosures.  If we reduced the foreclosed lots down to 10%, it would only be a 5 lot reduction, moving the sales totals to 34 for 2011.  Still an excellent year.

Verdict: foreclosures affected lot sales only a little.  I was surprised on this, I thought it would be more.

Do You Have Any Questions?

As I continue to break the numbers down for waterfront real estate sales on Lake Martin, please feel free to email with this form or at [email protected] with questions. I get my best ideas from my readers and clients so please feel free.

I think next I will look at residential sales again, and study the effects of foreclosures and condo sales.

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2011 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010 – Lot Sales
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by   FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.

 

 

 

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Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2011 – Year In Review

Lake Martin waterfront home sales finished 2011 in style, selling 207 waterfront residences on the entire lake.

This total gives Lake Martin the highest home sales since 235 were sold in 2006.  That’s not bad once you think about it.  We posted the highest sales in five years.  The statistics I quote are taken from Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors’ MLS*, and represent all real estate agents, all brokerages, over the entire lake.

The significance of this strong year of home sales cannot be understated for Lake Martin. I have said it many times here on this blog, but it bears repeating: the Lake Martin waterfront real estate market is at least three and a half years past its bottom.  Since July of 2008, everything has been uphill with regards to numbers of homes sold.

Lake Martin Waterfront Home Sales By Month

If you would like the source data for the chart above, here below are all waterfront home, condo, and town home sales on Lake Martin, broken down by month:

Below please find a line chart showing the same data for Lake Martin homes sold, I just removed 2005 through 2007 since I was getting too many lines on my chart and it was becoming hard for me to read.  I feel that 2008 is an appropriate year with which to start this chart since it was the bottom.

I think it is also notable that 2011 is the year that the market once again broke the 200 homes sold barrier.  This is the first time we have broken 200 since 2006. Back then, Lake Martin was still firmly in the sales boom, although numbers of waterfront homes sold were dropping, prices were still rising.  We didn’t quite realize that it was turning down.  Those trying to sell their Lake Martin homes should have gotten out then if they wanted to perfectly time the market.

This year, I think that Lake Martin is in just as pivotal a year. Sales increased by about 6%, but I think that prices still have not risen at all.  I think that may change in 2012.

Lake Martin Waterfront Home Pricing Trends

I only look at prices of homes sold once a year on Lake Martin. This is because we have such a small number of homes sold, relative to large metro markets. It doesn’t make sense to look at it monthly because two or three abnormal homes can skew it too much. You sometimes see a 100% increase or decrease from month to month. Too volatile. Similarly, I do not track Lake Martin home prices by calendar quarter because we are a seasonal, second home or vacation home market. Check out the monthly sales chart above and you can see that the bulk of home sales happen in warm months.

I attempt to solve our small market problem by breaking the homes sold into categories, in increments of $100,000 to start with, and then observing what percentage of the total sales that each $100k band represents.

Without further ado:

I think the above chart shows very clearly, and confirms my gut’s suspicion, that waterfront home, town home, and condo prices did not decrease on Lake Martin in 2011. They held steady with 2010 and 2009. While some sellers may interpret this as bad news (no sales increase) I think they should count their blessings.

At least there was no dip or decrease in prices. I would be shocked if there were. After all, Lake Martin is in a rising sales environment and has been for years.

So What?

So what does this chart mean?  I think it means that once again, as in 2009 and 2010, the largest percentage of homes sold on Lake Martin were in the $200,000 – $299,999 range.  Right at 25% of the waterfront home sold in 2009, 2010, and 2011 sold in that range.

If we had seen the entire bell curve shift forward towards the blue line of 2008, we could say (in my opinion) that we have evidence of price increases. But it didn’t.

I am tempted to say a price increase shift is starting in the way the $300k – $399k and $400k and $499k bands are bulging out a bit, straining in the chute, if you will.  2011 had a lot more sales in the 400s than did 2010, but the prior year beat 2011 in the 300s. I will call it a draw.

Why do I think there is a chance that we might see price increases in 2012?  Because the home sales results keep chipping away at inventory. At the end of December, there were about 359 waterfront homes and condos for sale, after 207 sales in 12 months or a ratio of 1.73.  Sure, December is the lowest listing period. But in December 2010 that number was 394 / 195 = 2.02.

Sellers - please hear me out.  It is NOT time to raise prices like it was 2006.  I am just saying that I can see the easing of downward pressure if sales continue.

Please stay tuned, I plan to write a lot more about 2011 Waterfront real estate sales on Lake Martin.

Related Posts:


Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010 – Lot Sales
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by   FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.

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Lake Martin Home Sales For November 2011

The Lake Martin real estate market posted good waterfront sales for November, 2011.

The Lake Martin MLS* reports that 8 waterfront homes, condos, and town homes were sold in November.  This includes all real estate agents, all brokerages, on the entire lake, that are members of the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors.

It meant that November in 2011 was not as good as November 2010′s 10 homes sold, but was good enough to push the 2011 total above the 200 barrier to 203.  This is significant because Lake Martin real estate market has not seen waterfront home sales above 200 since 2006 scored 235 sales.

This year’s number of waterfront homes sold so far on Lake Martin has surprised me. After a strong summer and fall, I thought that we would end the year with 205 or so total. Hitting 203 with one more month to go is very encouraging.  My revised estimate for the entire year is 210 or so homes sold, which, as mentioned, will be the best since 2006.

Will December 2011 beat December 2010?  I doubt it.  Last year there were 12 waterfront homes sold through the MLS.  That’s strong – the best December since I have been tracking the numbers in 2005.  The average amount of Lake Martin homes sold in December has been about 6 if you look at 2005 – 2011.

If that holds true, Lake Martin will be on a two month losing streak to the prior year. Does this bode ill? Not necessarily, in my opinion.  Firstly, it’s hard to be anything but happy with the best year’s sales since 2006.  Secondly, we have learned that the winter months can be unreliable predictors.  To wit, 2007 had an awesome first quarter before totally tanking.

I won’t slice the numbers too much this month; I need to save my strength for my year end review later this month.  But in case you are interested, there was another waterfront lot sale on Lake Martin in November:

Also the sales versus the prior month chart is as expected, November posted a loss versus 2010 but overall the year was great:

Waterfront lot sales for Lake Martin property sold through the MLS were also strong in November.

Strong lot sales on Lake Martin this year could mean a good year for the construction industry. Granted, total waterfront lot sales are only about 60% of their peak in 2006, but hey, over 30 is a good year.

As I mentioned above, I will put a greater amount of emphasis on the year end numbers. I will wait a week or so more to make sure that all realtors and brokerages on Lake Martin have finalized their reporting to the MLS, so please stay tuned!

 

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2011 – October 2011
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010 – Lot Sales
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by   FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.

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