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Archive for the 'Market Statistics' Category

Lake Martin Real Estate Stalls In August

Lake Martin waterfront home sales stalled slightly in August of 2010, selling only 27 waterfront properties as compared to 31 sold in August of 2009.  However, the cumulative total for Lake Martin in 2010 is still better than 2009.

Lake Martin MLS* Market reports for 2010 have seen spotty performance versus the prior year. This year, the Lake Martin real estate market has been like some of the SEC offenses I have watched so far this season. When it was good, it was very good, and when it wasn’t, it was tepid. Not horrible, just lukewarm.

That being said, when you look at total sales for the calendar year, 2010 is still ahead of 2009. Therefore it’s hard to complain too much when we are beating last year. Most real estate markets around the country, especially second home / vacation markets, would love to be able to say that.

OK, so we are still ahead on the scoreboard. By the end of August 31, 2010 has sold 144 waterfront homes on Lake Martin versus 138 at this point in 2009. But what is the momentum?

In my opinion, the finest measure of the momentum, if not health of any real estate market is comparing the current month’s number of homes sold versus the same month last year. If you need convincing, read this post by Nicolai Kolding.

So how does Lake Martin’s waterfront real estate momentum shape up? See the below chart. Any area above the zero line means that month beat the prior year, which is a good thing.

I am not really sure how to interpret the above graph. I think it clearly shows that 2009′s hot streak has been cooled the last few months. I hesitate to call it a double dip as Lake Martin is still besting its competition of last year.

In short, we need more information. We need the sales results from last few months of 2010 to show us what is really going on with the number of homes sold, as well as any movement in average prices.

Number of Waterfront Home for Sale on Lake Martin

The above graph shows us that the inventory of waterfront homes for sale on Lake Martin has headed back down. This is the typical seasonal shift. Nothing really surprising about this, except that I am sure sellers wish it peaked a lot lower. Expect this number to decrease until January or so.

Looking Ahead

The Lake Martin MLS, at this writing, has scored about 15 waterfront homes sold so far in September, with about 22 under contract to close. We won’t know the real numbers until the middle of October or so, but my guess is that Lake Martin will have a good September. That’s another reason why I hesitate to call a shift in momentum. Again, we need more time, more information.

Waterfront Lots Sales Take Off

Another bright spot for the Lake Martin market is the surprising news that waterfront lot sales were way up in August.

I know I am going to sound like a typically self contradictory “economist” on the dole at NAR when I say this, but I think this is good news for everyone. I (jokingly) define everyone as:

1. Bankers – maybe they have finally found rock bottom prices at which their foreclosed lots will sell.
2. Buyers – has the news **finally** sunk in? They really have started to act on their observations that these lot prices are incredibly low, instead of just talking about it?
3. Builders – sure, not everyone will start building tomorrow. But at least it hints at a future where there will be some normal activity again.
4. Sellers – how can the same news be good for Lake Martin owners and buyers? When the news points to overall market health. If people are buying lots, that means they are not finding homes that they want, or at least have confidence in the market overall. It’s kind of like fishing – when you’re catching small ones, at least something is happening. When nothing is biting, you begin to doubt if there is anything down there at all.

Lot sales breed confidence.

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales – June and July 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Waterfront Lots
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.

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Lake Martin Waterfront Home Sales: June & July 2010

Real estate sales on Lake Martin looked strong on midsummer of 2010.

In June 2010, 17 waterfront homes were sold through the Lake Martin MLS. July 2010 saw a huge increase, 28 homes were sold. These statistics were taken from the Lake Martin MLS* – so it is all agents, all agencies, everyone.  While these market reports sound impressive, how do they stack up against history?


As you can see from the monthly results chart above, 2010 is posting consistently strong results when compared to years post bubble burst. Interestingly though, if you compare it only to the prior year, 2010 lost badly to 2009 in June (17 sales versus 26) and tied it in July at 28.

What about cumulative results? How does it look if we add each month’s sales to get a rolling calender year total? That gives us an idea of the sales trends and a historical perspective.

Lake Martin waterfront home sales at July 31, 2010 ,are stronger than by the end of July in 2009. This is certainly good news, as 2009 was (what I have dubbed) as the comeback year for Lake Martin real estate. Looking only at the above chart, we could rightly assume that 2010 will be even better than last year.

But what about momentum?

How do we measure how fast lake homes are selling? Sure, 2010 is ahead of 2009 so far. But does it have enough gas to stay ahead?

Loyal readers of Lake Martin Voice know that I put a lot of stock in comparing how this month’s number of lake homes sold stacks up versus the same month of last year. I truly believe that this is the absolute best measure of the state of any real estate market. It cuts through all the hocus pocus. It doesn’t concern itself with ivory tower parleying over macro economic data, nor nit picking through minutia of this home versus that. It’s all about the scoreboard. It’s like the feeling when the clock hits 0:00 in the Iron Bowl. There’s nothing more to say, no more trash talk or what ifs. The scoreboard does the talking.

How does the scoreboard look for 2010?


If you are a fan of sales increasing, you want to see action above the zero line. That means that the current month is beating the same month in the prior year. A quick glance shows anyone that Lake Martin real estate sales in 2009 were beating the pants off of 2008. The “good” news is that 2010 is still beating 2009, just check the cumulative sales. However, it is not at the same furious pace.

Is this evidence of the dreaded macro economic “double dip” of bad results? I don’t think so. Let’s wait until a year starts losing consistently before we make that call. For right now, I think the jury is still out for 2010. These are halftime results, let’s wait until November to make that call.

Inventory


Another positive trend for Lake Martin sellers is the fact that the waterfront homes for sale seems to be decreasing. One look at the above chart can show you that in the Lake Martin real estate market, inventory usually peaks at mid summer, and then slides down toward January. If we have hit our apex for 2010 already, it would seem to indicate a trend towards a smaller number of properties for sale through the MLS.

This is classic supply and demand, folks. We still have strong sales, but if waterfront homes on Lake Martin start to be more scarce, prices will finally cease their slide.

We need more data to be sure, but I think this helps the odds of my earlier prediction of stabilized prices for 2010.

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Waterfront Lots
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.

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Lake Martin Lot Buyers – An Interesting Trend

I lake  martin lot salesam about to list a new waterfront lot for sale on Lake Martin.  In the course of researching for every new piece of real estate, I run the numbers on similar sold property to see if I can spot any trends.  I must admit I was surprised to realize that:

Lake Martin Waterfront Lot Buyers Are Sticking in the ‘Hoods

From January 1, 2009, to June 20, 2010, 23 waterfront lots have sold on Lake Martin. Of those, 14 are located inside the higher end neighborhoods, mostly those developed by Russell Lands.  Check it out:

6 – The Ridge 6/23 = 26% of total sold

4 – The Preserve at Stoney Ridge (not Russell Lands) 4/23 = 18% of total sold

2  Trillium 2/ 23 = 9% of total sold

2 – River Oaks – ditto

If you add those up, that’s about 61% of lots sold are in these formalized neighborhoods. Before you are tempted to think “big deal” – consider this: as of this writing, there are 179 waterfront lots for sale on Lake Martin through the Lake Martin MLS.  At our current sales rates, that is about 11 years’ worth of inventory.

The Ridge 31/179  = 17% of total for sale

The Preserve at Stoney Ridge (not Russell Lands) 11/179 = 6% of total for sale

Trillium 6/179 = 3% of total for sale

River Oaks 14/179 = 8% of total for sale

200438021-001Did you see that?

These Lake Martin developments are selling at at least double, sometimes triple of their expected rates from the sales pool. Hey, no one should be bragging at these slow sales numbers overall.  But let’s at least acknowledge who is getting it done.

If You Own a Waterfront Lot – 2 Things to Take Away From This Post:

1. 11 years’ worth of inventory is still an extreme buyer’s market – that means, at current sales rates, if nothing else came on the market, it would take 11 years to sell all that we have for sale on Lake Martin right now.

2. You must know your competition – if you are outside of a Russell Lands neighborhood – you must market to those who are more likely to buy your lot.  We have over 700 miles of real estate around Lake Martin and only a tiny fraction are inside The Ridge, Trillium, Willow Point, etc.  In other words, there are great lots inside their neighborhoods, but there are also tons of great lots outside them. You (or your agent) must be able to verbalize the selling points of your specific lot to find your perfect buyer.

If you need help, please contact us at this form or the email address at the top of the page. We would love to talk to you about your lot.

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Lake Martin Home Sales Still Strong In May

Waterfront home sales on Lake Martin, Alabama continue to look good.

Through the Lake Martin MLS,* 21 waterfront homes were sold in May 2010 compared to 22 in 2009, 14 in 2008, and 23 in 2007.

Here is an associated chart that shows monthly waterfront homes sales on Lake Martin since 2007:

lake martin home sales thru may 2010

If we take a look at the cumulative results, Lake Martin real estate fans will see that 2010 is still tracking way ahead of last year and 2008. I think 2008 was the bottom for the Lake Martin real estate market, so I certainly expect it to be beating 2008.

I am a firm believer that the leading trend statistic to watch in real estate, Lake Martin or otherwise, is comparing this month’s sales versus the same month of the prior year. Therefore it gives me a little pause when I see that May 2010 lost, albeit by one waterfront home sale. Even with sales in the twenties, though, I just don’t think that number is too statistically significant. In other words, one – schmone.  It was pretty much a tie.

Now, if we see that June ’10 loses to June ’09, we may have spotted a trend here. But from what I am seeing on the market now, and the level of sales activity that has spiked up, I don’t think that will be the case.

How Are Prices Trending?

I think that prices are still under a lot of pressure.  There is still a lot of waterfront homes for sale on Lake Martin, and, despite the sales momentum, prices are kept low.  This is evidenced by the silence at the same old overpriced homes, while the homes that come back on the market with reduced prices get the first attention of buyers.

Here is a graph of all of the waterfront homes for sale right now on Lake Martin:

Influence of the Oil Spill

Another question I get a lot is what, if any, influence is there of people fleeing to Lake Martin property as a reaction to the oil spill in the gulf?

I think the answer is – it’s still too early to quantify the impact on sales. True, I have had several new buyers to call me that were on the fence considering beach  vs. lake and they say this has swayed them, but they haven’t bought yet.

I have noticed a marked increase of people calling me about short term rentals on Lake Martin.  I guess they canceled their beach condo rental and are looking for a substitute.  I don’t handle rentals so I always refer them to others.  I must admit my random rental calls have doubled.  Will these people fall in love with Lake Martin, and then decide to buy?  Who knows.  I can’t imagine that it hurts the lake.

Let me say this, I know a lot of really good agents all up and down the Gulf Coast and I hope this doesn’t affect them too drastically.

Looking Forward

We are still relatively early in the sales season at Lake Martin.  The crucial months of June, July, and August will really tell us how serious 2010 waterfront sales are. It’s simply too early to guess.  Praise God, I have been twice as busy as I was this time last year with buyers and sellers.  I am sure other agents must be experiencing the same things, and this leads to more real estate sales on Lake Martin.

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Waterfront Lots
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.

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2010 A Win So Far For Lake Martin Real Estate

The Lake Martin waterfront real estate market is rather seasonal, as you may imagine.

Most of our market’s sales happen between March and October, so when a new calendar year rolls around we must pause to see what’s going to happen when spring gets here.

So far, 2010 has seen very strong sales* of waterfront homes. The first 4 months of the year are on pace to beat 2009, and individual months have beaten the same month in the prior year three out of four times:

If you add the monthly numbers together to see how it looks versus prior years on Lake Martin, you can see that we are already ahead of the “comeback year” of 2009.

This is an early indication that buyers maintain confidence that the bottom of the market was in 2008.

However, it is still early for sellers of Lake Martin waterfront homes, lots, or condos to rejoice.  There is still a lot of inventory for sale right now.

The above graph is for lake homes, but the story for waterfront lots is even worse.  I recently calculated that Lake Martin has about 10 years worth of inventory on the market right now.  In other words, at current sales rates, it would take 10 years for the demand to absorb what is for sale right now, assuming nothing new came on the market.

The Result

The result is a rather unique time in a the natural real estate sales cycle.  The number of homes sold is ramping up.  Demand is increasing; this is undeniable. But, prices are still under a lot of pressure because there is so much for sale.

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Waterfront Lots
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.

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Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Further Study

I think that 2008 was “the bottom” of the Lake Martin real estate market.  I was convinced by studying these Market Reports waterfront sales in 2009.  This post will look deeper into 2009, attempting to find exactly what month it all turned around.

Hopefully this exercise will help us learn more about our current cycle, as well as more accurately predict future market swings.

Here is a chart of total waterfront homes sold in the Lake Martin real estate market, by year, since 2005:

I am convinced that to predict the direction of average home prices, one must look for clues in the number of homes sold this month to the same month last year. When any market sees a trend that shows the current month is beating the same month’s number of waterfront homes sold from last year, that signals a shift in the market.

If we go on the assumption that 2008 was the bottom of the buyer’s market, and that things are swinging back toward the seller’s favor, the natural question, when looking at the above graph, is:

What month did the Lake Martin market turn around?

The above chart shows the number of waterfront homes sold versus the same month of the prior year.  For example, in July of 2007 11 homes were sold, and 28 were sold in July of 2006.  11 minus 28 is negative 17, so that is why July 2007 dips to -17 on the chart.  In contrast, in June of 2009, 26 were sold, versus 7 in June 2008.  So we have a positive 19.

Based on these findings, I think the Lake Martin real estate market hit the bottom around July of 2008.

That was the last month (other than a hiccup in April 09) that consistently lost to the same month of the prior year.  Almost every month after that, we stayed above the zero line, meaning the entire Lake Martin real estate market was beating the prior year and heading in a positive sales direction.

The real question now is: since sales turned for the better in July of 2008, when will prices follow?

Looking Ahead:

Based on these trends, I think 2010 will be a year of stagnant pricing.  There is still too much inventory on the market to bid prices up.  But I do think that the number of homes sold will help stave off the two year trend of falling prices.

This is good news to sellers, who may count their blessings that prices didn’t drop yet again.  Buyers may need to go ahead and make their selections, because I see 2011 as a return to rising prices. Will we see the blistering 30% per year gains of 2000 – 2006? I doubt it.  But 12% per year gain on any investment is pretty darn skippy.

Calculating the Lag:

Another way to look at it is this: the number of homes sold peaked in 2005 and started dropping in 2006.  Yet it took until 2008 to catch up to prices – that was the first year that we had price drops.  There was about a 24 or 30 month lag.

Therefore, if home sales picked up in mid 2008, the same 24 or 30 month lag would have prices rising late 2010 or early 2011.

Please remember that these statistics I cover are taken from the entire Lake Martin MLS – all agents, all brokerages, on all reported sales. Also please remember that any forward looking statements of mine are purely a guess, market conditions may change at any time.  But people ask me all of the time what I think about prices and I try to give them an opinion backed up by statistics, instead of just sticking a wet finger in the air to judge wind direction.

Practical Application

Do you own Lake Martin waterfront home, lot, or condo, and you are wondering what it is worth?

Contact us today for a free, no hassle, no nag Comparable Market Analysis.  Let us tell you how your home fits into this critical shift in the market, and how we would propose to creatively and effectively market your property.

Buyers – why wait until next year when prices will be on the rise again? The market may still be in the tank in your hometown but Lake Martin has been on the mend since mid 2008.  Make your move now.  Let us help you sift through the overpriced and picked over and help you find your spot to relax.

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Waterfront Lots
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.

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Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Waterfront Lots

This post is a continuation of my earlier Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review.

In that post, my two main points were:

1.     Number of Homes Sold Was Up, therefore 2008 Was The “Bottom”
2.    Average Prices Of Homes Decreased

In this post, I will address the trends of Lake Martin waterfront lots sold in 2009, and also try to take a look at the future of the prices of Lake Martin homes.

Lake Martin waterfront lots sold in 2009 are still slow moving and low priced

Every statistic we discussed in the previous post dealt with waterfront homes (or condos, or townhomes) only. If we consider lot sales only, we see that they have not yet seen the sales increases that homes have. Additionally, I think that prices have decreased even more than homes have in 2009.

Take a look at the number of waterfront lots sold* on Lake Martin from 2006 to 2009:

You can see that we are still down in terms of number of lots sold.  Please keep in mind these are TOTAL lot sales, taken from the entire Lake Martin MLS, all reporting brokerages, everyone.  In 2006, 55 lots sold all year.  2007 sold 34.  In 2008 – the bottom year in home sales - sold 18.  In 2009, 19 were sold.

I guess you could say that since 19 is greater than 18 then we are on the way back up.  But 1 is not much of a difference and doesn’t signal as a dramatic a change in direction.

Again, I think the big difference here is that many of those lot sales were builders that planned to build spec homes.  Funding (and logic) for that dried up with the drought of 2007 and the banking crisis of 2008.  As a result, there are quite a few foreclosed waterfront lots out there for sale, and the prices look like 2004.

One “good” thing about decreased lot sales is it slowed down the spec home building that contributed to the over supply of Lake Martin homes for sale.  It caused a spike of lake homes for sale, especially in 2008.  See the chart below for numbers of homes for sale on the entire Lake Martin MLS:

SELLERS – This chart should convince you that you must really do a good job of staging, pricing, and marketing your Lake Martin lot. Marketing especially is important.  You can’t just stick a sign in the yard anymore.  We will create a custom marketing plan to help your lot stand out from your competition. Please email us at info {at} lakemartinvoice {dot} com or call John Coley or John Christenberry now.

BUYERS- If you are looking to buy a waterfront lot on Lake Martin, you’re in luck. Right now is the best time in about six or seven years to buy one. Prices are (for the most part) rolled back to those of years ago, you have many from which to choose, and the home sale comeback should give you some assurance that everything will be OK. Contact us now to help you sort through them all and find the best deals.

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Further Study (coming soon)
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.

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Lake Martin Real Estate Sales – 2009 Year In Review

Strong sales of waterfront homes on Lake Martin showed us that 2008 was the bottom of the market.  2009 was the best year since 2006 for numbers of homes sold, but prices continued to take a beating.*

2009 proves to be a very interesting time for Lake Martin home and lot sales.  Please note that everything below relates to waterfront home, condo, and lot sales only.  There is a treasure trove of information here, and I would like to present it all.  This first post will attempt to cover the two major themes:

1. 2008 Was “The Bottom” And The Market Has Bounced Back

2. Prices Decreased Again

the details:

1. 2008 Was “The Bottom” And The Market Has Bounced Back

Grade A readers of Lake Martin Voice know that I am a firm believer of fellow RE blogger Nicolai Kolding’s Phases of the Real Estate Market. Basically, he holds that the number of homes sold LEADS pricing. In other words, keep your eye on how well the number of homes sold this month compares to the same month last year, because that trend signals the direction of average price sold.

I think that 2009′s strong number of waterfront homes sold finally lets us know that we HAVE seen the bottom, and it was 2008. That assumes you define “bottom” the way that most pundits do, that is, from a seller’s perspective.  I think a buyer might call it a peak and would interpret this as bad news.  Rather than parley about definitions, I offer the facts:

As you can see from the above chart, at Lake Martin, at least, the bottom was in 2008.  In 2009, just about every single month beat its counterpart for sales in the previous year.  When you look at the cumulative sales totals for the entire year, 2009′s dominance is evident.

In 2009, on the entirety of Lake Martin, all agents, all brokerages, all (reported) sales, tallied 194 waterfront home sold.  Compare that to 137 in 2008 and 156 in 2007.  It still wasn’t as good as 2006, but hey, you’ve got to like the trend.

The Convincing Bullets:

  • The magnitude of the beating that 2009 put on 2008 convinced me.  194 sales vs. 137 means that we were 42% up from last year.
  • The beating was consistent across almost all months – no one fluke month
  • Was not caused by one big sell off – Crowne Pointe helped but did not make the year great
  • If you don’t agree, what will convince you? I’m not trying to be challenging, I’m curious. Please comment below and let me know if you have a different opinion and upon what numbers you base it.

2. Prices Decreased Again

It’s very hard to track average sold prices in a small real estate market like Lake Martin. Our small sample size makes that number swing wildly month to month, which is why I crunch this number (officially) only once a year.

In my Lake Martin Real Estate: 2008 Year In Review post I laid out a method to study average sold price trends at Lake Martin. I looked at each sale recorded in the MLS, removed those with an unreported sales price, and then categorized the others in several price strata – like $0 – $99,999; $100,000 – $199,999; and so on. This resulted in a nice little bell curve to visually represent the average sold price patterns.

When I did the same analysis this year I found plenty of evidence to lead me to believe that property prices dropped again in 2009. This marks the second year in a row of devaluation. See the below chart:

Focus on the gray line of 2009. See how it shifted backwards, and evened up with 2005? There you go.

Take a look at the peak in 2009. 52 of 194 homes – or 28% – sold in the range of $200,000 – $299,999

Note – I don’t think this simply means that more “cheap homes” were sold. Look at how much of the total area is under the price of $500,000. Find the peak of 2006 and 2007, then draw a mental line down to the X axis. Most of 2009′s sales are behind (to the left) of it.

Bullets to ponder:

  • Does this mean that home prices are back to 2005 levels?  In some cases, yes.
  • When will the drops stop?  I think 2010 will hold steady, because of point #1 above.
  • Is now a bad time to sell? If you have to sell it for what you paid in 2007, yes.  If you can be flexible, no. It might not be pretty but the rising sales numbers prove we can get it done.

Looking Forward

Basically, my outlook is positive for 2010. As long as we convincingly beat 2007 and 2008 in number of homes sold, I will feel good about calling the bottom. If we don’t, I still think we will need to analyze 2010 on its own merits and not as a hangover from the drought of 2007 or bank woes of 2008. In my opinion 2008 will still be a bottom in its own right.

1. I think home sales will equal 2009 (approximately)
2. I think average prices will finally quit dropping, and stay about the same as 2009.

I will give further numbers behind my theories in later posts, but I formed them on the timing of the home sale turnaround, and will try to quantify the lag between that and average sold price moves.

SELLERS – Yes, we can. Please contact us – we can tailor a pricing, staging, and marketing plan specific to your property. Praise God, last year was our brokerage’s best sales year ever. We have a method that combines industry leading marketing and old fashioned elbow grease.  It works.

BUYERS – The clock is ticking. Yes, there are still awesome deals out there, but it takes a lot of sifting to find them, and then it takes experience to be able to negotiate the best deal. Now is the time to end the “I should have bought years ago” blues.

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Waterfront Lots
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Further Study (coming soon)
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.

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October 2009 Waterfront Sales On Lake Martin

Lake Martin waterfront real estate had another good month in October 2009.  There were 14 homes sold in the month, just about equaling the 15 waterfront properties sold in October 2008, according to the Lake Martin MLS*.

Once glance at the above chart can tell you that most real estate sales in the Lake Martin area really taper off in November and December.  Therefore I think it’s safe to say that most of our sales for 2009 are behind us, and we can start looking at the year as a whole.

2009 was a great year for Lake Martin waterfront real estate.  Market wide, we have already outsold both 2008 and 2007.  In fact, I think the numbers show that our rally started back in August or September of 2008. That’s why I am not too concerned that October 2009 was beaten by October 2008 by one sale.  By October of 2008 we were on a winning streak that continues to now.

On another positive note for sellers, the number of homes for sale on Lake Martin has come down this month.

Perhaps this trend will continue until the normal seasonal buildup in January.

Analysis Of Lake Martin Market

I will save a full analysis for a bit later.  For now, I just wanted to dash off this quick post for October’s results.  But I will go ahead and say that, after a closer look at the numbers, I will probably be “calling the bottom” for our market. Who knows what the short term future will hold, but I think it’s fairly obvious that, long term, the worst is behind us.

What Do You Think?

Please comment below….

Related Posts:

All Lake Martin Voice Posts on Market Statistics

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.

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Strong September Sales Slay 2007 At Lake Martin

Lake Martin waterfront real estate is on a tear.

Last month, we saw August’s year to date totals exceed the entire year of 2008.  I speculated in this post that we had a good chance of defeating 2007′s 12 month total of 156 with a strong September.  Sure enough, 24 lakeside homes were sold by all agents in the Lake Martin MLS*, which gave 2009 a total of 162 homes sold.

Another one bites the dust.

Here is a chart showing Lake Martin waterfront property sales by month for the last three calendar years:

All of these big sales months add up.  As you can see from the cumulative chart below, if we look at the entire Lake Martin MLS, including all agents, all brokerages, everything, we sold 137 waterfront homes in the entire year of 2008.  We passed that mark in only 8 months this year.  In all months of 2007, 156 were sold.  So at 162 through 9 months in 2009, we have defeated yet another year.

Supply Remains High

We still have a lot of waterfront homes on the market.  One aspect of September’s sales results that I did not like to see was the increase in homes for sale on Lake Martin.  We were on a nice, seasonal downward slope that I was hoping would take us to more normal levels, away from the step ladder highs we have been witnessing over the past three years.  We increased to 494 homes for sale in September, up from 488 in August.

True, this number is still about 10% down from the all time high of 555 in 2009, but we are still 5% away from the 2008 high of 524. Sellers – YOU MUST CONTINUE TO PRICE AGGRESSIVELY! Please do not take this post as a sign you can ask whatever you want and get it.

Waterfront Lot Sales Remain in a Slump

All of the above info relates to Lake Martin homes, condos, town homes, etc.  It does not contain lots.  The number of waterfront lots sold has not picked up. Our year to date total of 16 in 2009 is on pace to match the 18 sold in all of 2008, and is a far cry from the 34 of 2007.

As with homes, we will need to see an increase in the number of waterfront lots sold before we see any movement in prices.

The Crowne Pointe Effect

To continue a theme started earlier this year, I will attempt to examine the effect of the fire selling of the Crowne Pointe condo complex.  Earlier this year, we discovered that while the condo sales certainly helped prop up the sales numbers for the lake as a whole, it was not the only driver of the sales resurgence.

What about now?  Most of the units in Crowne Pointe are sold and the buyers have closed already.  Now that the dust has mostly settled, what can we say about its effect on the Lake Martin real estate market?

We can see from the above chart that all non single family homes (which includes ALL condos, town homes, etc) sold this year represents about 36% of all sales.  The average from 2006 – 2008 is 18%. Interestingly, the average from 1-1-06 to 9-30-09 is about 20%.

Yes, we still have had a proportionately high number of non-single family homes sold in the waterfront market this year.  But if you remove its influence and back it down to the four year average of 20%, you are only removing about 16 sales, which still puts 2009 ahead of 2008 already.

My answer is the same as July: Crowne Pointe has helped, but has not made, the year’s sales.  2009 is / was strong on its own.

Related Posts:

All Lake Martin Voice Posts on Market Statistics

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.

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