Real estate sales on Lake Martin looked strong on midsummer of 2010.
As you can see from the monthly results chart above, 2010 is posting consistently strong results when compared to years post bubble burst. Interestingly though, if you compare it only to the prior year, 2010 lost badly to 2009 in June (17 sales versus 26) and tied it in July at 28.
What about cumulative results? How does it look if we add each month’s sales to get a rolling calender year total? That gives us an idea of the sales trends and a historical perspective.
Lake Martin waterfront home sales at July 31, 2010 ,are stronger than by the end of July in 2009. This is certainly good news, as 2009 was (what I have dubbed) as the comeback year for Lake Martin real estate. Looking only at the above chart, we could rightly assume that 2010 will be even better than last year.
But what about momentum?
How do we measure how fast lake homes are selling? Sure, 2010 is ahead of 2009 so far. But does it have enough gas to stay ahead?
Loyal readers of Lake Martin Voice know that I put a lot of stock in comparing how this month’s number of lake homes sold stacks up versus the same month of last year. I truly believe that this is the absolute best measure of the state of any real estate market. It cuts through all the hocus pocus. It doesn’t concern itself with ivory tower parleying over macro economic data, nor nit picking through minutia of this home versus that. It’s all about the scoreboard. It’s like the feeling when the clock hits 0:00 in the Iron Bowl. There’s nothing more to say, no more trash talk or what ifs. The scoreboard does the talking.
How does the scoreboard look for 2010?
If you are a fan of sales increasing, you want to see action above the zero line. That means that the current month is beating the same month in the prior year. A quick glance shows anyone that Lake Martin real estate sales in 2009 were beating the pants off of 2008. The “good” news is that 2010 is still beating 2009, just check the cumulative sales. However, it is not at the same furious pace.
Is this evidence of the dreaded macro economic “double dip” of bad results? I don’t think so. Let’s wait until a year starts losing consistently before we make that call. For right now, I think the jury is still out for 2010. These are halftime results, let’s wait until November to make that call.
Another positive trend for Lake Martin sellers is the fact that the waterfront homes for sale seems to be decreasing. One look at the above chart can show you that in the Lake Martin real estate market, inventory usually peaks at mid summer, and then slides down toward January. If we have hit our apex for 2010 already, it would seem to indicate a trend towards a smaller number of properties for sale through the MLS.
This is classic supply and demand, folks. We still have strong sales, but if waterfront homes on Lake Martin start to be more scarce, prices will finally cease their slide.
We need more data to be sure, but I think this helps the odds of my earlier prediction of stabilized prices for 2010.
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Waterfront Lots
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review
(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.