Lake Martin Voice Realty
Lake Martin Posts Best Real Estate Sales Month In Post Bubble Era
July 2009 was the Lake Martin real estate market’s * best month since July 2006.
It terminated the July 2008 total of 15, and beat any other month on record going back to the 28 homes sold in July 2006. As loyal readers (and my real estate clients know) I am focused on the current month beating the same month last year. This makes three consecutive months of 2009 victories over 2008 (July 09 vs July 08, June 09 vs June 08, etc.). As we have learned from this seminal post by Nicolai Kolding, the number of homes sold must beat prior years BEFORE we see a rebound in sales prices and market phases.
That’s what we are seeing now. 2009 is beating 2008, handily, at that. See below.
Is This A Sign That The Waterfront Homes Market Has Already Hit Bottom And Is Climbing Back?
Let’s step back and look at the entire year of Lake Martin MLS sales and compare it to other years. When we do that, we find that this strong month has pushed 2009 way above 2008, and tied it with the (horribly dry environmental event that shall not be named) year of 2007.
Behold:
The total number of waterfront homes sold in the Lake Martin MLS is up 46% over last year, and is tied with 2007. Through the end of July, 105 homes have sold in 2009. Through the end of July 2008, only 72 had. That’s 46%, folks.
I think we have a good chance at a good August, and I think by the end of September / mid October we will have a shot at clinching a victory over 2008 as a whole.
Where are we now?
Given the sales climate at Lake Martin right now, I think it is worth at least considering that we may be in Kolding RE Phase VII. I am not saying we are there, I am merely suggesting that we are pretty close, and need to consider it. At Lake Martin, our small sample size prevents us from looking at average price movements mid-year, so we are flying a bit blind, here. But all good generals look at least 3 moves ahead.
Phase VII is the buyer’s sweet spot!
In Phase VII, the numbers of sales are increasing, thereby lessening risk (since you’re buying in a “rising” market) yet prices are still decreasing from supply pressures (aka “too many” homes for sale).
Does this fit the bill at Lake Martin? On the supply side the answer is yes. See the below graph. Even though we have started the seasonal draw down of waterfront homes for sale, we are still near record highs.
Phase VII to a buyer is like Relationship Phase Two to Seinfeld.
Phase / Schmase, What Does it Mean To ME?
Buyers – please give me a call or email. I can help you NOT WASTE TIME on the “good deal” siren song, and plug you in immediately to what I feel will be the properties best suited for the ride back up – and MORE IMPORTANTLY – a great place for your family to make memories – which really should be the point of a Lake Martin home or lot, anyway.
Sellers - as you can see, homes ARE SELLING – but you must be priced, staged, and marketed right in order to rise above all of this market noise. I have almost sold myself out of listings, praise God. I am interested in talking to YOU, TODAY!
For Every Post I Have Written On Sales Statistics, See:
Lake Martin Market Statistics Category
(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.
John, Once again nicely done. If I am reading the charts correctly, it looks like +/- 100 homes have sold year to date, or +/- 14/month. With the inventory being +/- 525 homes, would you say there is
about a 3 year supply currently on the market? Also,
are waterfront lots considered separately? If so, how are they doing?
Best,
Ron
Thanks Ron, and great questions. Looking strictly at July, 28 sales in the month with 523 active listings = 18.68 months of inventory. But that is a little misrepresentative, I think. Eyeballing it, I would say the 60 rolling average months of inventory is about 23. This is a lot better than this time last year, when the eyeball amount was about 30. The trend – downward – is more important IMO than the #. Maybe I will start tracking a rolling average months of inventory. Other readers have requested it also.
Lots – great question. No, this does not include lots. I will do lots in a follow up post. Only 7 waterfront lots have sold ALL YEAR through the MLS. A few have sold through bank foreclosure. But there are 187 for sale at July – so that is like 160 months of inventory in the 60 day rolling average. That’s over 13 years’ worth. Ouch. This is the same as 2008.
Thanks! This questions are super helpful for me to formulate my next post and ponder angles that I had not considered previously.
Anyone else have any more?
I’m just so glad to see home sales up in our area. Congrats on all your sales.
We are Realtors in the Phoenix Arizona and have been hit harder than most areas with foreclosures. It is difficult to find properties that are not lender owned (unless they are short sales which will soon be lender owned in most cases)
However, there is a silver lining in the market. Buyers are returning in large numbers and REO’s are selling in a few days with multiple offers being the norm. I too believe that a new wave of foreclosures is due soon but, at least here, the savvy buyers are ready, willing and able.
It is an exciting time to be a Realtor in the Valley of the Sun.
Nice breakdown & analysis, and of course it’s good to see home sales pickup. Different markets in the country are definitely in different phases of the economic cycle, and it looks like you may be further along the cycle than we are here in Oregon.
thanks Milan, hopefully we are all on the way out of this ….