July 2009 was the Lake Martin real estate market’s * best month since July 2006.
It terminated the July 2008 total of 15, and beat any other month on record going back to the 28 homes sold in July 2006. As loyal readers (and my real estate clients know) I am focused on the current month beating the same month last year. This makes three consecutive months of 2009 victories over 2008 (July 09 vs July 08, June 09 vs June 08, etc.). As we have learned from this seminal post by Nicolai Kolding, the number of homes sold must beat prior years BEFORE we see a rebound in sales prices and market phases.
That’s what we are seeing now. 2009 is beating 2008, handily, at that. See below.
Let’s step back and look at the entire year of Lake Martin MLS sales and compare it to other years. When we do that, we find that this strong month has pushed 2009 way above 2008, and tied it with the (horribly dry environmental event that shall not be named) year of 2007.
The total number of waterfront homes sold in the Lake Martin MLS is up 46% over last year, and is tied with 2007. Through the end of July, 105 homes have sold in 2009. Through the end of July 2008, only 72 had. That’s 46%, folks.
I think we have a good chance at a good August, and I think by the end of September / mid October we will have a shot at clinching a victory over 2008 as a whole.
Where are we now?
Given the sales climate at Lake Martin right now, I think it is worth at least considering that we may be in Kolding RE Phase VII. I am not saying we are there, I am merely suggesting that we are pretty close, and need to consider it. At Lake Martin, our small sample size prevents us from looking at average price movements mid-year, so we are flying a bit blind, here. But all good generals look at least 3 moves ahead.
In Phase VII, the numbers of sales are increasing, thereby lessening risk (since you’re buying in a “rising” market) yet prices are still decreasing from supply pressures (aka “too many” homes for sale).
Does this fit the bill at Lake Martin? On the supply side the answer is yes. See the below graph. Even though we have started the seasonal draw down of waterfront homes for sale, we are still near record highs.
Phase VII to a buyer is like Relationship Phase Two to Seinfeld.
Buyers – please give me a call or email. I can help you NOT WASTE TIME on the “good deal” siren song, and plug you in immediately to what I feel will be the properties best suited for the ride back up – and MORE IMPORTANTLY – a great place for your family to make memories – which really should be the point of a Lake Martin home or lot, anyway.
Sellers – as you can see, homes ARE SELLING – but you must be priced, staged, and marketed right in order to rise above all of this market noise. I have almost sold myself out of listings, praise God. I am interested in talking to YOU, TODAY!
For Every Post I Have Written On Sales Statistics, See:
(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.