Lake Martin Waterfront home sales posted a pretty typical October for 2010.

Following a dismal September, which posted the lowest amount of September sales in the last 5 years, October returned to just “average.” The 13 waterfront homes sold in the Lake Martin MLS* represent a pretty typical October.

Year to Date Totals

This sales month pushes the year to date total of Lake Martin waterfront homes sold to 171. To compare this to prior years at the end of October, we see that it is not as good as last year, but still way ahead of 2007 and the low point in 2008. Not too shabby.

I think this lukewarm month also sets Lake Martin up to lose to last year in total waterfront homes sold. I can’t really expect 2010 to have an above average November or December, so I think we will come in slightly behind 2009.  It’s not exciting, but there are plenty of markets that are still sliding downward and would change places with us in a second.

I haven’t looked at the dollar value yet, nor the average sales price. I expect that prices held steady.

Market Diagnosis

I really thought that this October was going to be a big winner.  I alluded to that a bit in my post where I wrote about September Lake Martin home sales.  When I was writing September’s, the date was actually November 2.  So I looked on the MLS at the same time to get a preliminary feel for October.  When I did that, I saw 27 waterfront homes that were closed in October.

Wow! I thought.  That is awesome, one of the best months, regardless of market and season, in the last several years.

But –> I WAS WRONG!

When I ran the numbers again for October (yesterday), I came out with 13.  I was baffled.  I even posted it on my twitter stream .  How could two market reports be so different, only 25 or so days apart?  I even contacted my MLS provider, FBS Data Systems, to help me audit the difference, to no avail.  The only thing I can think I did wrong was not to filter the results by Waterfront only.

I am sure now, though, that we only had 13 homes sold through the Lake Martin MLS in October 2010.

In the bigger picture, I think October’s not flashy but average results mean that we are back to a stable market.

I am not ready to officially call it yet. I really want to see another two months’ sales, and I want to use an entire 12 months to calculate the bell curve of pricing. But if we get there, I want to make sure that everyone is ready to admit that the gloom is done.

It’s hard to step out on a limb and call a market shift. Real estate markets are like any other, there’s a lot of resistance to leaving the company line. To wit, there were plenty of people that disagreed with me with I called the end of the seller’s market. There were plenty of so called economists at NAR that predicted flowers and daisies forever, until the mortgage meltdown forced them to admit that the emperor has no clothes.

Well, I am saying that there is a distinct possibility that we have proof of another market shift. We won’t flop instantly back to days of 30% annual gains. Lake Martin will be one of the few markets in the nation, a second home market at that, that will be able to confidently say that the worst is over. Not only have we seen the bottom, we have returned to stability.

Related Posts (I recently edited these links to make sure they work):

Lake Martin Real Estate Sales – September 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Waterfront Lots
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review

All Lake Martin Market Reports

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.