Election Effects on Lake Martin Alabama and Market Report for September 2024

Are you curious about how the Presidential election will impact the Lake Martin home market, or would you like to know more about the market report for September 2024? I’m John Coley, realtor and owner of Lake Martin Voice Realty. In this blog, I will share the real estate sales market numbers through September 2024 for Lake Martin in Alabama and will also give my prediction of what the recent election will mean for the housing market on Lake Martin.

Market Report for Lake Martin Through September 2024

Before we get to the election effects on Lake Martin, I have been getting tons of questions about an updated market report. In this section of the blog, I will bring you up to date through the end of September. 

So, what’s happened for waterfront properties this year through the end of September 2024? The home sales are actually almost even with 2023. l’ve been saying this for 18 months or more, but inventory is the story here. We are 59% up from September of 2023. Also, we are 41% above our 5-year average for inventory. If we compare that to our 5-year average, we’re actually 26% lower than our 5-year average for home sales. Therefore, home sales are down, and inventory is up. 

Next, what’s happening with lots? With lots, it seems like they always lag about a year. You can go back to some videos I’ve done in the past on my YouTube page, and you can see that. Lot sales are up about 15% this year, but they’re 12% lower than our 5-year average. Inventory is actually a little bit lower at 16% down, and it’s about the same 16% down from our 5-year average in inventory. So again, more of the same for 2024. 

Lake Martin Market After the Presidential Election 

The election is over now, and I’m getting tons of questions about what’s going to happen to Lake Martin real estate after the election. I get these questions all the time because I’m a full-time real estate agent here. I get a lot of my clients through my YouTube videos and blogs, and so I do them to help my buyers and my sellers. If I can help you out, then I’d love to.

What is the first year of the second Trump Administration going to look like? I wanted to look in the past and see what the transfers of power have done to Lake Martin real estate over the years. Before I get into this, I just want to say that there won’t be any big mic drop against whatever party you’re with. I’m just going to show you the raw numbers and then give my opinion on where we’re going in the future. 

Lake Martin Real Estate in 2005

During the transition between Bush’s first term and Bush’s second term in 2005, home sales were down about 7%. So, there was a little bit of a swing actually. 2005 was a really good year, so I was kind of surprised a little bit to see that. 

Lake Martin Real Estate in 2009

What happened in 2009 is a little bit more more interesting to me, because it’s a political shift from Bush’s second term to Obama. In 2009, the market went up 40%. The first inclination is to go whoa Obama kicked it 40% above Bush’s second term in 2009. Not so fast my friends. 

Do we remember what went on in the banking industry in 2008? I remembered I was trying to sell real estate back then. I had just bought a house, and I was worried to death. In July 2008, the housing crisis was actually the worst. It was the exact bottom of our market. I don’t know where it was for you, but at Lake Martin that year was the bottom. So, in 2009, anything less than suffocating is 40% higher. But given the scoreboard, it’s 40% above.

Lake Martin Real Estate in 2013 and 2017

In the transition of Obama’s first term to his second term during the year of 2013, it was almost dead equal. Maybe one or two houses different, so no big lessons there. 

What happened in the transition from Obama’s second term to Trump’s first term in 2017? Actually, that year was 20% higher than 2016. The bulk of that 20% gain came the first several months: January, February, and April of 2017. I don’t really know what that means. I don’t know if it was presidential optimism. When you go back and look at these market reports since 2017, | wasn’t hearing presidential optimism from people buying lake houses. I was just hearing that they wanted lake houses, but the first quarter basically made that year of 2017 better than 2016. 

Lake Martin Real Estate in 2021

What happened during the transition of Trump’s first term to Biden’s first term in 2021? Home sales dropped 22%. Again, I’m a scoreboard guy, so what did Biden do that made 2021 be 22% less than the previous year? 

Well, I can’t lay that on Biden. I’m sure you remember that Covid-19 really hit in 2020. That is the year that real estate went crazy. We can see it when we look in our charts. Go back and look at some of my prior stuff, and you will see that’s the anomaly year here at Lake Martin. It’s the anomaly year everywhere in real estate, so I don’t think it’s really fair to hang that one all on Biden. 

Prediction of the Future of Lake Martin Real Estate

Home sales decreased 22%, so what does that mean looking forward? It looks to me like a mixed bag. When you subtract the craziness in 2020, | was selling real state. Also, in 2008, it was way crazier then and was crazy to the downside. In my mind, I mentally block those years out, because world shaking things literally happened in those two years. 

That leaves us the transition of Biden’s first term to Trump’s. What kind of information can we draw? You can go back and look at what I said in 2017 or 2009. l’ve got to see that my overall thought and my overall thesis is that it is way more important to look locally. It’s way more important what happens at your kitchen table than what happens in the Oval Office.

These numbers cannot really predict where the Lake Martin real estate market is going to go. I hear some of you say interest rates maybe. I think I saw interest rates have a secondary reaction in 2023. l agree, but that’s a secondary reaction. That’s a little bit of a correction steer, and so I think they can’t control them anyway. 

Conclusion to Prediction

When I’m talking to buyers and sellers who say they are waiting until after the election, I usually say that’s fine if it makes sense for you. Look at your personal finances and look at your personal goals. If that makes sense, then go for it. However, don’t hang your hopes on prophets, priests, and kings in this world. This is not what is going to drive Lake Martin real estate. I’ve never heard anybody say that they really enjoyed their lake house except for that one term or that president. 

If you’re a seller and think now is the right time for your family to sell your house that you’ve had for 20 years or 2 years, then that’s way more important than what president is going in or out of office. 

l hope this blog gives you a little bit of historical context about the election effects and market report, and I hope it gives you a little bit of backup of why I would say not to worry about these numbers. If I thought it had some kind of relation to the microeconomic situation at Lake Martin, then I would tell you. l’m not afraid to give my opinion, but when I do I try to back it up with facts. 

Contact Lake Martin Voice Realty

If you are in need of some more facts about election effects, the market report, or are wondering where I came up with these percentages, then you can just click on the video above and leave a comment. I can email you the numbers behind all this, and I’ll be glad to do it. 

I do this for a living. I’m a real estate agent on Lake Martin, and I would love to help you out. Give me a call at the number on the top of this page, send me and email, or reach me through our Contact Page. I look forward to hearing from you!

For more blogs on Lake Martin market reports, then click on the links listed below: 

Market Report Lake Martin Alabama July 2024

2024 May Market Report | Lake Martin Alabama Waterfront Real Estate