Lake Martin Voice Realty
Archive for August, 2008
Lake Martin MLS Sales – Second Quarter 2008 Results
The numbers confirm what we all felt in our guts – according to the Lake Martin Multiple Listing Service – in the second quarter of 2008, sales were down compared to 2007. Also, just as importantly, the number of active listings was up, therefore keeping a lot of pressure on sellers.
If you recall, in 2007 by June we really had a pretty good idea that we were in for a miserable drought. I would have thought that meant June 07 waterfront sales would be a lot lower than 2008 (drought tempered). But I was wrong. The year to date numbers get even uglier. If you read my post about the first quarter sales results, you may remember that we had sold 17 waterfront properties through March 31, 2008 versus 43 through March 31, 2007.
If you add the first and second quarters together, I guess someone revised a few sales because the year to date totals at June 30 are 93 for 2007 and 57 for 2008. Here is a graph to show it:
This graph shows the waterfront sales, through the entire Lake Martin MLS, through June 30 of each year. Each month is cumulative. E.g. through May 08, 50 had sold on the entire lake. 7 were sold in June, so at June 30 the Year To Date Total is 57. Again, I am just trying to show the cumulative effect.
Maybe we have more water in 2008, but Lake Martin also has another thing that is equally potent: more listings for sale. See the below graph. Note that in 2007, the total number of waterfront listings for sale peaked at around 450. Through June 30 we are way past that, at over 500:
I hate to keep beating this drum, but it always comes back to supply and demand. We have 10% more for sale this summer than we did in 2007. This is why sellers must be absolutely focused on their pricing, staging, and marketing. If we continue to have more overpriced and undermotivated sellers on Lake Martin, look for the “days on market” stat to climb even higher.
(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.
Related Posts:
Lake Martin Is High, But So Is Real Estate Inventory
Lake Martin Waterfront Sales: April 2008
Why It’s Cool To Have An Office In A Convenience Store
For all you high overheaders out there, with your glitz and glamour shots, here is why it is so cool that my office shares a wall with a c-store:
Bada bing!! This has been my view out of my office window for the past hour today. Nothing fires me up to sell some Lake Martin real estate more than a stare down from some sort of Norse God of Ice. He graces the side of the “Cheaha Ice Company” truck that occasionally delivers ice to Nail’s Convenience Store here in lovely downtown Kowaliga, Lake Martin. See a zoomed out pic:
The cool thing is I am pretty sure he is only on one side of the truck. The other side is blank. Another cool thing is that his abs are totally discrete, not a parte of the maine of his belly. I also like how his head is disproportionately large compared to his femur. And why the sweatband? I would guess that he doesn’t perspire much. Maybe he is trying to match the blue in his boots and make them really “pop.”
It just goes to show you how much the Lake Martin real estate industry has changed. Over the last 4 years, I can count on one hand how many times I have met clients at my office. Mostly I meet them at their homes or on the way to homes they want to see. It’s much more convenient for them, which is the whole point of a service industry, right?
One more bonus pic, a scary close up (brrrrrrrrrrr):
From The Lake Martin Voice Mailbox: A Reader Asks Some Tough Questions
A Lake Martin Voice reader submitted these questions to me about the Lake Martin real estate market in general. They were so good that I thought we all would benefit from my attempts to answer. Do you disagree? Then reply below and let me hear about it. The RIQ (reader in question) purchased a Lake Martin waterfront home in 2006. Here are my OPINIONS, for what they are worth, I am neither an appraiser nor soothsayer:
1. We arent looking to sell, but gosh, in this environment, is seems like we just bought at the wrong time. What do you think?
I think that 2006 was the peak of the bull market in Lake Martin waterfront property.
2. Will Lake Martin property values ever come back?
I don’t think they have gone anywhere to warrant a “come back.” In other words, I don’t see evidence that prices have dropped, only evidence that they have ended a scorching run of yearly gains. So if by “come back” you mean will prices someday start going up again? Of course. It’s all about supply and demand. In my estimations property values in the period of 2000 – 2006 climbed 30% PER YEAR. No product, not even oil, or bottled water, can sustain that. Since then I think we have had 0% gain for 2 years. Yet, if you average that gain over 8 (2000 – 2008) instead of 6 (2000 – 2006) you still average 22.5% gain per year. I realize you bought in 06, but still you need to know that over the long term (40 years), history has shown us that Lake Martin averages 12 – 15 % per year gain.
3. Do you think our decision on this house will prove to be an œok decision for long term financial objectives?
Don’t mean to sound like a smart Alec, but let me know of another investment that has averaged 12 – 15% per year for the last 40 years. I will start selling it instead of Lake Martin real estate. I am too conservative (and cash poor) 
of an investor to hop in and out of real estate on the short term. But for the long term, it’s hard to beat. Remember, unlike Tampa or Atlanta or whatever, Lake Martin is not growing geographically. Waterfront footage is fixed. Furthermore, practically every inch of undeveloped (450+ miles) shoreline is owned by either Russell Lands or Alabama Power. It’s not like you have 100 different landowners or developers that potentially flood the market. I believe that Russell Lands is committed to measured growth. The last thing they want to do is flood the market with supply (which is why I think they have pulled back in the last 18 months). Alabama Power isn’t even in the real estate business. About every 5 years they release 15 new lots to lease. On the grand scheme of things, that is not a material amount of supply injection.
4. Do you think we could move our Lake Martin house if we had to?
Absolutely. Even though market wide, the Lake Martin market is still lukewarm, I have been blessed to have sold more real estate so far in 08 than all of 07. That’s not bragging because 07 was pretty pitiful. But an interesting point is that about half of the Lake Martin homes that I transacted this year had already been for sale before, some since 06. So did I sprinkle magic dust on their roofs? Did I go to the back yard and bury 6 statues instead of merely 1 statue of St. Whomever, patron saint of the desperate? No. I concentrated on the holy trinity of real estate: pricing, staging, and marketing. In a buyer’s market, things are still selling, it just takes a longer time. In 2005, it might take 20 days. in 2008, it might take 100. But it will sell. Sure, there is a lot of stuff on the market that is sitting for over 200 days. But, I am highly confident your home can be sold if properly priced, staged, and marketed. Will you make money? Who knows. I don’t know what you paid for it nor what you owe on it. But rest assured, if your goal is simply to “move” it, absolutely it can be done.
Does anyone else have an opinion? Help us all out and comment below. If you can’t see the “Leave a Reply” box below, click the “Continue” button then scroll to the bottom.
