Lake Martin Voice Realty
Archive for November, 2008
Double Shot Of Good News – Lake Martin MLS Sales Results – Sept. and Oct. 2008
Lake Martin waterfront sales have not been especially brisk, but at least we have beaten the prior year in the last two months.
In September, there were 20 waterfront homes sold in the entire Lake Martin MLS*, which represented a 25% increase from September 2007. October 2008 saw 15 homes sold as compared to only 8 in October 2007. While that is positive news, I still don’t feel like we are in the heady rush of an upswing in sales.
Here’s the monthly sales chart:
We still haven’t sold more homes cumulatively as compared to 2007. The Lake Martin realtors would need to sell 29 homes total in November and December to do that. We might come close, but I doubt it. Here is the cumulative comparison chart:
Another bit of good news it that total active listings on the Lake Martin MLS have come down for the third month in a row. See below:
All of these backward looking charts are great, but the thing that people ask about the most is the future. Where is the Lake Martin real estate market headed? What about waterfront property around the country in general?
For all of you Lake Martin Voice Readers who want extra points, please read this excellent post by Nicolai Kolding on the Better Homes and Gardens Blog. I don’t know if he came up with this or not, but the basic gist is that a great way to understand the cycles of real estate is to study transaction sides (# of sales) and average sales price. This may seem elementary until you see what is driving what – average price changes lag BEHIND transaction sides. In other words, changes in # of sales foretell changes in prices.
This is not some hocus pocus, he backs it up with cold hard numbers and observes market periods long enough ago that we can all agree were sellers’ or buyers’ markets. Check out his supplementary post here, and download the spreadsheets to check the numbers yourself.
We have a disadvantage here in the Lake Martin waterfront market in that our average sales prices are all over the map. As I have said before, our small sample sizes of sales mean that we have a wide difference month to month in average sales price. Any time you have a wide difference or deviation, statisticians tend to throw out the results. Think of trying to predict the presidential election by only asking 1 person. It wouldn’t be very accurate. If you ask one million, well, depending on the sample, it will be more accurate. Asking 10 million, even more accurate. We can’t look at short term average sales price changes on waterfront homes on Lake Martin and infer very much.
But we can keep a close eye on total sales, and how they compare with previous periods. We will have to make a call with our guts on the average prices. But if we put both together, maybe we can assign what type of market Lake Martin is in with a little more certainty than before. Thanks to Nicolai for the post, and for sending me his supporting data so that I could run a test on Lake Martin.
“So what?” – you ask.
Well, it means that if you are thinking about buying at Lake Martin – get hopping.
I think we’re in Phase V or VI, but I don’t know how long that will last. We blew through Phases III and IV pretty fast. And we only have up to go. With so many properties on the market, wouldn’t you like a professional to help you make sure you aren’t the one who gets burned? Call me or email me.
(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.
Related Posts:
Lake Martin Market Statistics Category
Wakeskating At Lake Martin
One of the great things about working around Lake Martin is that occasionally you bump into some really crazy folks. The other day I met Kyle Walton and a bunch of his buddies who are professional wakeskaters and /or wake boarders. Something. They were featured in an issue of Lake Magazine several months back.
Anyway they are gallivanting around the country making videos. They have these gas powered winches that reel in hundreds of feet of ski rope, which allow you to wakeskate / wakeboard in places that you can’t get a boat, if you are talented yet insane. They are nuts but they are pros. Don’t try this at home. Sorry for my poor video quality, if you want some better views, go to their site.
Do you love Lake Martin?
Why not subscribe to my email feed (enter your email in the box at the top left margin and click subscribe), or RSS feed, so that you don’t miss out on future posts from Lake Martin Voice? It’s free, low hassle, and no spam. I promise. Just Lake Martin real estate and related info.
Guerrilla Septic Tank Tactics
My family recently moved to a new-to-us home (fyi my “old” home sold in 2 days). The new home is on a septic tank system, whereas the old one was tied in to the sewer system of the City of Montgomery. This got me to thinking about a claim my father has long made, that is, those “flushable” wipes they sell these days may be flushable, but they are bad for septic systems as they do not properly disintegrate like toilet paper does.
I did some research, then an experiment. The results made me immediately think about homeowners on Lake Martin, as I would hazard a guess that 99% of waterfront homes on Lake Martin are on some sort of septic system.
THE EXPERIMENT: Do “flushable” wipes degrade like toilet paper?
Modus: Following the suggestion from this site, I took 3 separate Tupperware boxes, filled them halfway with water. In one I placed a ball of our walmart brand toilet paper (as a control to disintegration). In another I put 1 walmart brand flushable wipe. In the last I put 1/2 a square of our walmart brand paper towel (as a control to non-disintegration). I put the tops on, and shook all of them vigorously.
Results: The TP dissolved immediately. The wipe did not, nor did the paper towel. I even left them overnight in their containers, hoping time would help. Alas, the next morning, it was the same story. The wipe was as strong as the proverbial new rope. Check the pics, the wipe is to the left, paper towel on right:
here is another, hanging the paper towel thing. Again, the wipe is on the left.
Application: I guess this means that I cannot in good conscience flush these wipes into my septic system. If they don’t dissolve, that means they will eventually clog up my septic tank, causing an overflow of poo into my yard, and an expensive visit from the septic guy. But I really like these wipes. Their fresh, sanitary use has taken us all to a new hygienic level. As Jerry Seinfeld is to Coach Class Airfare, I can’t go back. I won’t. So what to do?
Guerrilla Septic Tank Tactics
Here are some ways to continue using the wipes without endangering your system. Be warned, these are for hardcore hackers only.
1. Go at work – This is the optimal situation. You can keep your wipes at your desk, cubicle, or in your lunch pail or purse. Whatever. Once you learn to disregard the severe social stigma of being one of “those people” that goes at work, you are home free. They are probably on a sewer system there anyway. If not, what better way to stick it to “the man,” right?
2. Go at your neighbors’ – Notice I said “your system” above. Perfectly OK to affect the other guy’s yard as long as they are downhill from you. We live in a society where it’s all about ME anyway. This is just a logical extension of that admired ME FIRST attitude. Carry your wipes hidden in your pocket and slip in unnoticed when they’re cutting the grass or doing something altruistic.
3. Go at the new guy’s home – Corollary to #2 above. When the new family moves in to the neighborhood, drop by in the guise of the welcome wagon and go for it. They don’t know you yet so they are blind to your true motive. Offer the housewarming gift in one hand, in the other you are palming your wipes. In the frenzy of opening the gift, they won’t notice if you slip off for a minute.
4. Go on the way home from work - establish a route that goes by some sewer friendly friends.
5. Go on the way to Lake Martin – again, do your research and pick your spots. Encourage all family members to be proactive so that there is no need to go during your stay. If you are diligent in 1 – 4 above, you can avoid stressing your lake home’s system.
6. If you gotta go at the lake – see 2 and 3 above. Just apply it to your Lake Martin neighbors.
I guess if you are not a true guerrillero or a hacker, and can’t do the above, you can go at home, and just pay the $150 +/- to have your system pumped every couple of years, or however often your septic professional recommends. Because if you are using these wipes, chances are good that you are heading towards a blockage.
Lake Martin Magazine Interviews a Bunch of Realtors
In the November issue of Lake Magazine – Lake Martin Edition - Nikki Reeves sent out an email to interview local real estate agents. The topic was the 20th anniversary of the founding of the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors (LMAAR). She also interviewed the past presidents of LMAAR about the past, present, and future of the Lake Martin real estate area. You can click on the above link to read the other folks’ quotes.
Of course, I am never shy about supplying my honest thoughts. I sent an email to Nikki with the below. The part that she used is the underlined part. After reading the article, I can see why she didn’t use the other parts of my quotes. They wouldn’t have fit in with the tenor and tack of the others.
Here’s the text of my email:
Nikki-
some thoughts on LMAAR’s 20th anniversary:
PAST:
“It’s a funny coincidence that 20 years ago, as LMAAR was formed, the U.S. was in the middle of a different bank bailout - the Savings and Loan Crisis. It roiled the credit industry and hammered real estate, making a lot of people panic and expect the worst and wonder if real estate would ever ‘come back.’ Well, it did. Except for a slowdown in the late 90s, real estate roared until 2005 or so.”
PRESENT:
“Hunger is a powerful motivator.”
FUTURE:
“I think the real estate slowdown and the subsequent credit market implosion and bailout has dealt our industry a well deserved hit in reputation and credibility. This is a big issue and there’s a lot of blame to go around: realtors, buyers, sellers, lenders, appraisers, Freddie, Fannie, and bureaucrats, to name a few. Realtors can’t solve it by themselves, but we can start by sweeping our own porch – being honest, transparent, hardworking, and useful. The public mostly considers us simpletons at best and dishonest at worst. The only way to change that is to be worthy of respect, one deal at a time.“
or if you want a more Lake Martin economic focused quote:
“I think in the short term it will still be a buyer’s market. There is just so much supply out there right now. In the long term, or greater than 2 years, Lake Martin will continue to give you an outstanding return on your investment. Just compare us to other second home markets that are more mature, like Highlands, NC for example, or a fixed supply place like Kiawah Island, SC. Our waterfront real estate prices will keep on appreciating at a higher rate than anything else. Hopefully the surrounding towns like Alex City, Dadeville, and Eclectic can parlay that into regional growth through support businesses.”
If you get a chance, please go to the Lake Martin Mag online or read the hard copy. They do such a great job, and the November issue is no exception. As a history and science nerd, I particularly enjoyed the articles about Tecumseh and the Tallapoosa Darter.
Related Posts:
My Ode In Praise Of The Window Unit
Lake Mag Interview: The Uncensored Director’s Cut
John Coley Featured In Birmingham News Article On Vacation Homes
