“Have Lake Martin sales picked up yet?”

I get this questions a lot.  Waterfront sales on Lake Martin are cyclical anyway, and after a tough Oct – Dec 2008 everyone is anxious to see if 2009 will be the year the market takes back off.

So far, it looks like January – March 2009 (1Q09) is in lockstep with waterfront sales in 1Q08. There were 20 sold in 1Q08 and 22 sold in 1Q09:

I guess I could make a sensational headline like:

“2009 Sales Are Up 10% Over 2008” but when that 10% = 2 sales, well, it seems like (statistically) a close call.

I think the real story lies in the active listings and new listings columns.  In March 2008 we added 110 listings for sale around Lake Martin, and had a total of 418.  In 2009, there was a little more total for sale, at 474, but in March 09 only added 53 to that total.

So what?

To me that is a sign of hope that sellers are pulling back a bit, and only selling when they are serious. I also think it is obvious that there is a lack of new spec homes on the market. Waterfront spec homes were still hitting the Lake Martin real estate market back in 08 because the pipeline can sometimes be about 8 months. In other words, new spec homes popping up as new listings in January 2008 were likely started around April 2007. But by April 2008, everyone had figured out that we were in an extreme buyers market, and quit starting spec homes.

The only spec homes now on the market are holdovers from 2007 and 2008, and in some rare cases, 2006.

Foreclosures? Short sales?

Yes,  Lake Martin is starting to see more foreclosures and short sales.

It’s hard to come up with an easy list of Lake Martin foreclosures or short sales because there is no field in the Lake Martin MLS to designate as foreclosure or short sale.  In contrast, you can easily search for waterfront homes or lots by choosing “Y” in a Lake Martin MLS search here.  For foreclosures and short sales, you pretty much have to deduce it by the seller (a bank or some other financial sounding company) and also the trusty Lake Martin grapevine.

What will the Lake Martin real estate market do in 2009?

No one can know for sure at this point, of course, but here are a couple of indicators that I watch:

1.)     2009 monthly sales beating 2008 – by this I mean in number of homes sold.  We have already seen in 2008 that average prices fell.  So according to what we know about real estate cycles then we should expect to see individual months in 2009 beating their 2008 counterpart BEFORE we see prices rebound. But, current year MUST start beating prior years.  It happened in the last part of 2008, and 1Q09 beat 2008 timidly, which is why the smart money eyes will be on the crucial period of 2Q09 (April – June 2009).

2.) Cities / States that were Bubble Sources – I am not a real big believer in strong trickle down connections between markets, at least in a 1 to 1 relationship.  But it is interesting to watch with the economy as a whole.  I watch Florida, California, and Atlanta.

Related Posts:

Lake Martin Market Statistics Category

(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all sales on Lake Martin.

The 5th Annual State of Our Watershed Conference, The Tallapoosa River Basin –Moving Toward More Effective Water Policy will be at the Betty Carol Graham Technology Center at the Central Alabama Community College in Alexander City on Wednesday-Thursday, May 13th-14th, 2009. This year’s conference will focus on moving toward sustainable water management policy for the Tallapoosa River Basin.

This year’s organizers and sponsors include the Auburn University Water Resources Center, Alabama Water Watch, the Middle Tallapoosa Clean Water Partnership, Lake Watch of Lake Martin, the Montgomery Water Works and Sanitary Sewer Board, and Central Alabama Community College

Go to www.twp.auburn.edu and, under TWP Highlights click the 5th Annual State of Our Watershed Conference link to go to information on the conference, including the Tallapoosa River Basin Management Plan (8.2 megabite pdf file), conference announcement, and conference registration (required for lunch headcount), and additional information.

"lake martin, alabama" By Gingher on Flickr

During the boom years of soaring prices for Lake Martin waterfront homes, many people who loved the lake and wanted something more than a weekly rental have settled for a yearly lease.

For some it was a fairly easy decision, since the monthly rent amount was only a fraction of what their payment would be for a comparable home on the water.  No more.  I run into people all of the time that pay $1,500 to $1,800 a month to rent a Lake Martin cabin.

Now, with rates at historic lows, and lots of pressure on sellers on Lake Martin, the rental excuse is just about gone. Consider a recent example of numbers that I ran for another agent:

Currently, his client is paying $1,250 a month to lease a cabin.  The client is fearing that the lessor is going up on the rent. So what kind of home could he buy for that much per month?

If you figure that you bought a deeded home for $325,000, and put 20% down, that would give you a loan amount of $260,000.  Bankrate.com tells us that right now in Alabama, rates for 30 year fixed loans are at about 4.875% – that gives a monthly payment of about $1,376 per month.

Ha – you say, renting is still cheaper.  Wait a minute – have you considered the after tax affect?  Yes, second home mortgage interest is deductible!  In the above scenario, you would pay about $12,588 in the first year.  So if you were in a 20% income tax bracket, the effect is a $2,518 per year or $210 per month reduction in tax.

$1,376 – $210  = $1,166 per month, or less than your cabin lease of $1,250.

True, you would probably have insurance expense that is greater than your renter’s insurance right now.  And true, you would have to pay property tax.  But I think that would pretty much wash out with the tax savings, to say the least.  Plus you would be OWNING a Lake Martin home instead of renting. You would never have to worry again about increases in rent, or whether they are going to renew at all.  You will be buying low – so why are you waiting?

You can’t find a good cabin on a big, private, wooded lot in a great area?  Wrong.  See more info here!

You do realize that you’re out of excuses, right?

Bailey Jones‘ book Growing Up tells you nothing you need to know to enjoy Lake Martin, but in it he tells you everything that you should feel if you really love it.

A couple of months ago, I got on a kick to read a bunch of history related books about Lake Martin.  I even went so far as to create Lake Martin Voice Library.  There are quite a few good ones out there that go into much rich detail about the land before the lake, the Indians, the settlers, and the people that developed it after the dam.

Sandwiched in between those readings, I returned again and again to a privately published collection – Growing Up by Bailey Jones.

I had heard of him before. I used to look forward to reading his column every month in Lake Martin Living. To me, it was a highlight of the magazine.  So you can imagine my pleasure to secure a copy of this book, a collection of some of his more popular columns.  At first I figured his quick reads would supply a brief palette cleanse in between chapters of history.  Yet I found myself sneaking more reading time on Bailey’s book instead of doing my homework.

I have been writing this blog for a couple of years now, and some of my more complimentary friends joke that I am the Garrison Keillor of Lake Martin.  Hogwash.   My writing stinks in comparison.

I say Bailey Jones is the Garrison Keillor of Lake Martin, except without the nose whistle and constant references to Scandinavian superiority.  Plus, I doubt Keiller has any real skilz like catching frogs and running from responsibility, getting stuck and unstuck in red clay mud.  Has Keillor known both the impotent feeling when the outboard won’t crank, and the Ragnar the Viking like thrill when it roars to life, when you have to hang on to the jon boat with one hand and steer with the other?

I think it’s relatively easy to spin fictional fables about the frozen north.  Give me a writer who can catch ring necks, get out of yard work, conquer wasps, scare weaklings in the dark, and take a good nap.

That’s why it doesn’t matter where you like to go on Lake Martin, you will see yourself in Bailey’s childhood memories. His book isn’t filled with location specific stories.  In fact, I only figured out where his cabin was by reading a (now timely) piece about the original Catherine’s.

It doesn’t really matter that you currently own or rent a place on the lake. If you read this book, and have taken it personally when you don’t catch fish, or have known the pride of a decent TV antenna giving you clear reception in otherwise bandless lands, then you will smile and nod as you read.

His dedication to boredom, to doing absolutely nothing, is chief among his wise advice. That’s what I loved the most about going to the lake when I was young, was the nothing.  I guess now “experts” would call it time for creativity.  Whatever.  But Jones gets the fact that the most fun, the richest experiences are gained when nothing is going on.  Do you want a total immersion experience? Why travel to France when it’s available in Elmore County?

When I was growing up, especially in my post teenage years, we Coleys tested each of my new girlfriends (such as they were) and my sisters’ boyfriends by one simple rule – do they love the lake? If we sensed any sort of hesitation about swimming in the lake, they were out.  If they did not absolutely swear that the Blounts put on the best fireworks show, they were traitors.  If they so much as raised an eyebrow at The Herculon and Kelvinator, well, they never got a second chance. Sure, it was an extreme standard.  But Jones gets it, and I hope he would approve.

I could go on and on, but I guess I would risk over-hype.  I will say this – buy the book.  Go to Bailey Jones’ website here and order it.  When I scrape together some more advertising dollars, I will be buying 10 more copies.  In all the Lake Martin homes I tour, I have never seen this one sitting on the coffee table.  I’d like to think that those who are in the know, and own the book, have it sitting, well read and well loved, on their bedside table.

Just don’t buy the book if you want to know about the number of miles of shoreline on Lake Martin, or who won the Miss Wind Creek contest in 1954.  He doesn’t tell you.

What he does tell you, is the why of Lake Martin.  To me, that’s all you need to know.

Coach Tommy Tuberville is selling his Lake Martin home. Here is a video tour that I did today during an open house for realtors.

I am not the listing agent. Toni Adcock is, so she is the authority on all listing info.

But, if you or anyone you know is interested in the home, please contact me by calling or emailing me from my info at the top of the page.  As a member of the Lake Martin MLS, I can help you with any property on Lake Martin, regardless of who has it listed.

Thanks again to Toni and Coach Tuberville for putting on a great open house, I wish them the best, and I hope to be bringing the buyer!

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Russell Lands, the largest private land owner and developer of Lake Martin, Alabama, has affiliated with the national real estate company of ERA.

This is huge news.

I was flipping through the April issue of Lake Martin Living this afternoon.  I noticed a big, nice ad on page 54 from Russell Lands.  The ad cites their website as Russell Lands On Lake Martin dot com.  This caught my attention as it is a new URL. Formerly everything Russell is on Russell Lands dot com.

So I checked out their new site.  It is really nice, goes over a lot of features of Lake Martin, like the new dining at Russell Crossroads like Catherine’s Market and Springhouse Restaurant.  The site also details the many off the water activities like hiking, biking and horse riding in Russell Forest.

Then I clicked on one of the upper tabs marked “Corporate” and then on the “Affiliated Businesses.” It details out many businesses of which I am familiar like Russell Marine and Willow Point.  But the last one really caught my eye: “ERA Lake Martin Realty.” What?

Check it out.  If you click on that link, it takes you to an entirely different site – ERA Lake Martin Realty dot com.

On that site header it calls ERA Lake Martin Realty “A Russell Lands Affiliated Company.” On the page that describes the ERA Advantage, it describes ERA Lake Martin Realty as “formerly Russell Lands Real Estate.”

If you click on the “meet the agents” tab, you will see many (but not all) of the agents that have been advertised in past issues of Lake Martin Homes and Land Magazine and those listed as having their license with Russell Lands according to the Alabama Real Estate Commission.

So I guess that we have an entirely new real estate company on Lake Martin – ERA Lake Martin Realty, which is populated by many agents that were “formerly Russell Lands Real Estate.” Okay.

I think this will have a interesting impact on the Lake Martin real estate market. It will be really interesting to see how they roll out their new plans.  I will comment on the possible effects of this later, but for now, I give congratulations on the new venture; I wish the company and its agents the very best!