Lake Martin waterfront home prices did not drop 2010, suggesting “the bottom” arrived sometime in 2009 or 2010.
About this time every year, I take an in depth look at waterfront home sales on Lake Martin as reported by the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors’ MLS(*) (of which I am a member). Prior years’ market reports have shown us that, in terms of number of waterfront homes sold, 2008 was the low point. 2009 showed an over 40% increase in homes sold at 194, and 2010 topped that amount at 195.
The final piece of the recovery was to figure out when prices would finally quit dropping. I think the below chart gives evidence that we are there.
Once again, we see that the bell curve of prices remains the same in 2010 – essentially even with 2009 and 2005.
“Big deal” – you might say. Stagnant home prices? What’s to brag about? Plenty…..
Anyone who follows Lake Martin real estate (or any market for that matter) and is who is watching for a change in the market focuses on two trends: number of waterfront homes sold and price of waterfront homes sold.
1. Number of Homes Sold Bottomed in 2008 – check this one off of the list. 2009 showed us by tallying over 40% more sales that 2008 was the bottom. Similarly strong sales in 2010 showed us that 2009 was no fluke.
2. Price of homes sold bottomed in 2009 – 2010 – I think we can check this one off, too. True, 2011 could see a drop in prices, but I doubt it. Why? Because of number #1 above. The number of homes sold is the leading indicator of average prices. We have been over and over Nicolai Kolding’s research that proves this. We have a lot of momentum with the number of waterfront home sales – too much momentum, in my opinion, to turn prices back down. At any rate, even if prices do drop in a double dip maneuver, we will have plenty of warning from the number of homes sold.
Quit waiting for the bottom. It is here. Make your move now before prices start going up again.
I can’t tell you how many times over the past 2 years I have helped someone find something they like, only to have their lake home plans be put on hold by the phrase “I think it’s going to get worse. I will wait.” Understandably, some buyers have hesitated based on fears that the Lake Martin real estate market will suffer more price cuts, and to these buyers, it was worth the wait.
No more. The day I have been predicting since 2009 is here. It’s hard to refute the numbers.
Are some Lake Martin waterfront homes, lots, or condos still overpriced? Absolutely. But that will be the case in any market, at any time. But the key here is that it should remove the fear that another market wide adjustment is looming. It also reassures us that as long as we keep focused on year to year monthly sales, we will have plenty of warning to market shifts.
You can’t raise prices just yet, but it should be reassuring that at least the slide is over.
This is the first post in a series that will cover the 2010 Lake Martin Real estate market reports and statistics. I will do my best to present the data clearly.
Please stay tuned to my real estate blog to keep up with my future posts on the 2010 year end review.
As always – I welcome your comments below or on my Facebook page, or my Twitter feed, or my Youtube channel. While numbers are hard to dispute, everyone has their own opinion about what they mean. I know that I constantly learn a lot from everyone out there when we talk privately.
Please help me and the rest of the readers out, and comment publicly!
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales – November 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Waterfront Lots
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review
(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.