Lake Martin Voice Realty
Lake Martin Foreclosure And Condo Sales In 2011
Here I continue my series of posts of the waterfront property sales results of 2011 on Lake Martin, Alabama. Earlier I have looked at residential sales in general, and yesterday I covered waterfront lot sales.
Today I would like to cover the effect of foreclosures and condominiums had on Lake Martin property sales in 2011.
Lake Martin Foreclosure Sales In 2011
The economists that advise shows like The View are a constant source to reassure us that the real estate market is terrible everywhere. They would have us believe that everyone in the nation is either in foreclosure, about to be foreclosed, or at the very least in a short sale. I find that hard to believe, though. I am sure that Whoopi and the gang consult with experts before they make broad, potentially very misleading comments about the economy.
However, here at Lake Martin we are well past the bottom of our market. I have blogged about this in the past. We have not seen a heavy percentage of our sales being foreclosures as in other markets. But I thought I would put a number to it, and see if my generalizations are correct.
Low Percentage: 7% Were Foreclosures
I combed through all of the residential waterfront sale for the last three years. I had to look at the “Owner” field in our MLS and just sort of guess whether they were foreclosures or not. This makes you inherently dependent on the listing agent to have entered correct info, but the same can be said for any aspect of the MLS. I think it’s materially correct.
I found that, sure enough, the Lake Martin waterfront real estate market had a relatively low percentage of sales that were foreclosures, REOs, or bank owned, however you want to phrase it. Fifteen were sold in 2011, equaling 7% of the market. Fourteen, or once again 7%, sold in 2010. Another fourteen or 7% sold in 2009. Comparatively, that is a very low percent of sales.
Just to put it into perspective, according to this article in the AJC on November 29, 2011, about 30% of home sales in Atlanta are foreclosures. That is more than four times the rate on Lake Martin. Ouch.
Lake Martin Condo Sales In 2011
It’s pretty natural to talk about Lake Martin condo sales for 2011 after the foreclosure section. This is because most of the condo sales in the last three years on Lake Martin were sort of foreclosures.
By sort of foreclosures, I am referring to two condo complexes: Crowne Pointe and Stoneview Summit. Both of these developments were taken back by banks, and then finished out by the banks and then sold. So they were not foreclosures in the traditional sense, but neither were they straight up civilian seller situations.
total 2011: 37 – 2010: 33, 2009: 59
Stoneview Summit sold 17 condos in 2010 and 17 in 2011. This was good for 46% of all waterfront condo sales in 2011 and 52%.in 2010. Crowne Pointe sold 43 condos in 2009, which accounted for 73% of all sales.
This high percentage of sort of foreclosures produced the highest pricing pressure for any other market segment. I think that Lake Martin condo prices dropped lower than homes and lots.
Looking Ahead
I don’t think the condo market’s prices will get any better for 2012. At this writing, there are 79 waterfront condos for sale right now on Lake Martin, and 20 of them are in Stoneview Summit.
The good news is that there are no condo developments being built in the forseeable future, so perhaps that will give them a couple o more years to sell off current inventory.
What About Your Property?
I have been blabbing a lot about the market in general. Do you wonder how all this applies to your home or lot? Or maybe you are searching for your own spot on Lake Martin and would like me to tailor these market reports to help you.
If so, please email me with this contact form or at [email protected] or call me at 334 221 5862. I would be honored to try and help.
Related Posts:
Lake Martin Lot Sales 2011
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2011 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010 – Lot Sales
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review
All Lake Martin Market Reports
(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.
Lake Martin Waterfront Lot Sales 2011
Waterfront lots sold well at Lake Martin in 2011. We the members of the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors MLS* reported 39 waterfront lots were sold, which was 44% better than 2010 and more than double the total sold in 2008.
If you missed my Lake Martin Year End Review 2011 post where I covered the basics of homes and condos sold last year, please click here. Back to lots …….
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Last year when I covered Lake Martin’s waterfront lot sales for 2010 in this post, I called 2010 the comeback year for lot sales. Any time you have a 42% increase (19 to 27), that’s a comeback. 2011 posted another huge gain – 44% – over last year. I guess that is a Secretariat-eque, shut the competition down, stretch run.
Lake Martin Waterfront Lot Prices
The next thing I wondered about Lake Martin’s lot sales was the price distribution. What are lot prices like? The careful reader knows that I confess an almost prideful love of the lovely bell curve that the line chart of homes sales prices makes. Does the phenomenon repeat itself with lot sales?
Sadly, no. I tried for like 2 hours to make an informative yet pretty and easily readable chart to display Lake Martin lot sale price distribution. I could not make it work. My chart skills with Apple’s Numbers program are lacking and I just don’t think such a small sample works. I guess maybe I have to break the sales bands down to a very small increment, say $20,000. But that felt like I was imposing a result on the chart, instead of just following where the numbers led me, so in the end I decided to merely post the chart with the source data. It is pretty easy to read, anyway.
I also think that when you have a small sample pool as we do with waterfront lots, it makes better sense to drill down to examples rather than looking at macroeconomic trends.
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Lake Martin Lot Sales Trends
When I look at the sales results since 2008, I think that I see the greatest change in the price range of $150k – $199k, and then also in the $350k – $449k range. Those price bands jump out at me as the ones with the most relative increase in sales.
The $150k – $199k range didn’t really surprise me. That is the meat of the market and one would expect good sales there in any good year. The spurt of 9 sales in the $350k – $449k range is interesting and worth a closer look.
It turns out, as I expected, that all nine of them are in deed restricted neighborhoods with covenants. That is not too surprising in that most people that buy a high end lot on Lake Martin would like the protection of neighborhood covenants. True, there is a fair contingent of lot buyers who chafe at the yoke of Architectural Review Committees, but apparently at this price range most prefer it.
Also, of the nine waterfront lots sold in this range, seven were in neighborhoods developed by Russell Lands. Does this mean lot buyers seek out their lots? I can’t tell for sure, but I doubt it. I think it is simply a function of numbers. Most Lake Martin lots above $200,000 are in Russell Lands neighborhoods, so odds are that they will show up in the sales results. For this particular range of $350k – $449k, four were in The Ridge, two were in Willow Point, and one was in River Oaks to round out the seven. The two that were not in Russell Lands developments consisted of one in Marina Marin and the other in a small neighborhood called The Overlook on Lake Martin. It is off of Old Tree Road near Martin Dam.
Effect Of Neighborhoods On All Lot Sales
Next I began to wonder about all of the waterfront lot sales on Lake Martin. How many of them are in deed restricted neighborhoods? How many lot sales were the quintessential quaint country lot, free of covenants, where every man is his own master?
The answer is –> not many. Of the 39 waterfront lots sold on Lake Martin in 2011, only 9 of them appear to be free of covenants and are outside of neighborhoods. Now, I must alert you to a huge warning – I am only guessing at their restrictions here. Of those 9, maybe some do have restrictions and I just can’t tell from the MLS or from prior knowledge. But of the 30 that I counted as having covenants, those I am positively sure that they are in neighborhoods.
Interestingly, the highest price lot sale that was outside of a neighborhood was $300,000. There were two in the $150k – $200k range, but the rest were under $150k.
A last thought - being inside a neighborhood doesn’t guarantee a high sale price. The lowest priced lot sold in 2011 was in River Oaks, a Russell Lands development, and sold for $45,000. Before you ask – yes, it was in the back of a slough and had minimal waterfront and minimal water depth. I referenced it when a builder called me yesterday. He wanted to spend $50,000 for a lot, but it had to have year round water, a good view, and over 100 feet of shoreline on a private lot. Sorry, I said. Not going to happen.
Effect of Foreclosures on Lake Martin Lot Sales
How many of the lots sold on Lake Martin in the last two years were bank owned, REO, or foreclosures? Was this responsible for the sales increases?
I think the answer is not so much. Sixty six waterfront lots were sold from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2011. I searched the owner name on all of these and eleven appeared to be foreclosures. The reason I had to make guesses on owner names is that in our MLS, we didn’t have a field marked “Foreclosure” until 2011. Going forward we will be able to search by that field. But since this included 2010, I had to guess at the owner name and trust that the listing agents had them right.
Eleven foreclosed lots out of 66 gives us about 17%. While that is higher (I think) than the percentage of foreclosed waterfront homes that were sold, it’s not that much higher. My gut tells me that only about 10% of homes sold in 2011 were foreclosures. If we reduced the foreclosed lots down to 10%, it would only be a 5 lot reduction, moving the sales totals to 34 for 2011. Still an excellent year.
Verdict: foreclosures affected lot sales only a little. I was surprised on this, I thought it would be more.
Do You Have Any Questions?
As I continue to break the numbers down for waterfront real estate sales on Lake Martin, please feel free to email with this form or at [email protected] with questions. I get my best ideas from my readers and clients so please feel free.
I think next I will look at residential sales again, and study the effects of foreclosures and condo sales.
Related Posts:
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2011 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010 – Lot Sales
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review
All Lake Martin Market Reports
(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2011 – Year In Review
Lake Martin waterfront home sales finished 2011 in style, selling 207 waterfront residences on the entire lake.
This total gives Lake Martin the highest home sales since 235 were sold in 2006. That’s not bad once you think about it. We posted the highest sales in five years. The statistics I quote are taken from Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors’ MLS*, and represent all real estate agents, all brokerages, over the entire lake.
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The significance of this strong year of home sales cannot be understated for Lake Martin. I have said it many times here on this blog, but it bears repeating: the Lake Martin waterfront real estate market is at least three and a half years past its bottom. Since July of 2008, everything has been uphill with regards to numbers of homes sold.
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Lake Martin Waterfront Home Sales By Month
If you would like the source data for the chart above, here below are all waterfront home, condo, and town home sales on Lake Martin, broken down by month:
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Below please find a line chart showing the same data for Lake Martin homes sold, I just removed 2005 through 2007 since I was getting too many lines on my chart and it was becoming hard for me to read. I feel that 2008 is an appropriate year with which to start this chart since it was the bottom.
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I think it is also notable that 2011 is the year that the market once again broke the 200 homes sold barrier. This is the first time we have broken 200 since 2006. Back then, Lake Martin was still firmly in the sales boom, although numbers of waterfront homes sold were dropping, prices were still rising. We didn’t quite realize that it was turning down. Those trying to sell their Lake Martin homes should have gotten out then if they wanted to perfectly time the market.
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This year, I think that Lake Martin is in just as pivotal a year. Sales increased by about 6%, but I think that prices still have not risen at all. I think that may change in 2012.
Lake Martin Waterfront Home Pricing Trends
I only look at prices of homes sold once a year on Lake Martin. This is because we have such a small number of homes sold, relative to large metro markets. It doesn’t make sense to look at it monthly because two or three abnormal homes can skew it too much. You sometimes see a 100% increase or decrease from month to month. Too volatile. Similarly, I do not track Lake Martin home prices by calendar quarter because we are a seasonal, second home or vacation home market. Check out the monthly sales chart above and you can see that the bulk of home sales happen in warm months.
I attempt to solve our small market problem by breaking the homes sold into categories, in increments of $100,000 to start with, and then observing what percentage of the total sales that each $100k band represents.
Without further ado:
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I think the above chart shows very clearly, and confirms my gut’s suspicion, that waterfront home, town home, and condo prices did not decrease on Lake Martin in 2011. They held steady with 2010 and 2009. While some sellers may interpret this as bad news (no sales increase) I think they should count their blessings.
At least there was no dip or decrease in prices. I would be shocked if there were. After all, Lake Martin is in a rising sales environment and has been for years.
So What?
So what does this chart mean? I think it means that once again, as in 2009 and 2010, the largest percentage of homes sold on Lake Martin were in the $200,000 – $299,999 range. Right at 25% of the waterfront home sold in 2009, 2010, and 2011 sold in that range.
If we had seen the entire bell curve shift forward towards the blue line of 2008, we could say (in my opinion) that we have evidence of price increases. But it didn’t.
I am tempted to say a price increase shift is starting in the way the $300k – $399k and $400k and $499k bands are bulging out a bit, straining in the chute, if you will. 2011 had a lot more sales in the 400s than did 2010, but the prior year beat 2011 in the 300s. I will call it a draw.
Why do I think there is a chance that we might see price increases in 2012? Because the home sales results keep chipping away at inventory. At the end of December, there were about 359 waterfront homes and condos for sale, after 207 sales in 12 months or a ratio of 1.73. Sure, December is the lowest listing period. But in December 2010 that number was 394 / 195 = 2.02.
Sellers - please hear me out. It is NOT time to raise prices like it was 2006. I am just saying that I can see the easing of downward pressure if sales continue.
Please stay tuned, I plan to write a lot more about 2011 Waterfront real estate sales on Lake Martin.
Related Posts:
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010 – Lot Sales
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review
All Lake Martin Market Reports
(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.
Lake Martin Home Sales For November 2011
The Lake Martin real estate market posted good waterfront sales for November, 2011.
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The Lake Martin MLS* reports that 8 waterfront homes, condos, and town homes were sold in November. This includes all real estate agents, all brokerages, on the entire lake, that are members of the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors.
It meant that November in 2011 was not as good as November 2010′s 10 homes sold, but was good enough to push the 2011 total above the 200 barrier to 203. This is significant because Lake Martin real estate market has not seen waterfront home sales above 200 since 2006 scored 235 sales.
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This year’s number of waterfront homes sold so far on Lake Martin has surprised me. After a strong summer and fall, I thought that we would end the year with 205 or so total. Hitting 203 with one more month to go is very encouraging. My revised estimate for the entire year is 210 or so homes sold, which, as mentioned, will be the best since 2006.
Will December 2011 beat December 2010? I doubt it. Last year there were 12 waterfront homes sold through the MLS. That’s strong – the best December since I have been tracking the numbers in 2005. The average amount of Lake Martin homes sold in December has been about 6 if you look at 2005 – 2011.
If that holds true, Lake Martin will be on a two month losing streak to the prior year. Does this bode ill? Not necessarily, in my opinion. Firstly, it’s hard to be anything but happy with the best year’s sales since 2006. Secondly, we have learned that the winter months can be unreliable predictors. To wit, 2007 had an awesome first quarter before totally tanking.
I won’t slice the numbers too much this month; I need to save my strength for my year end review later this month. But in case you are interested, there was another waterfront lot sale on Lake Martin in November:
Also the sales versus the prior month chart is as expected, November posted a loss versus 2010 but overall the year was great:
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Waterfront lot sales for Lake Martin property sold through the MLS were also strong in November.
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Strong lot sales on Lake Martin this year could mean a good year for the construction industry. Granted, total waterfront lot sales are only about 60% of their peak in 2006, but hey, over 30 is a good year.
As I mentioned above, I will put a greater amount of emphasis on the year end numbers. I will wait a week or so more to make sure that all realtors and brokerages on Lake Martin have finalized their reporting to the MLS, so please stay tuned!
Related Posts:
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2011 – October 2011
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010 – Lot Sales
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review
All Lake Martin Market Reports
(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.
Bluto – The Lake Martin Bear Market is Over!
"Zero point zero..."
Bluto Blutarsky might not want to admit it, but the bear market in Lake Martin waterfront real estate is over! As I have said many times on my various posts about Lake Martin Market Reports, I think the tide turned in the middle of 2008.
People keep talking about it, though, and that is understandable. So I covered the topic in my latest article in Lake Magazine. Here’s the link:
Nothing’s Over Until We Decide It Is
I am very grateful to publisher Kenneth Boone, aka Mr. Perfect, for allowing me to write these columns this year for his excellent Lake Martin Magazine. I have really enjoyed the different medium of writing that his magazine offers, and also relished the crossover discussions I have had with those who read his magazine more than they read my blog.
So if you are a Lake Martin Voice blog reader who is unfamiliar with Lake Martin Magazine, please check it out online and in print. They have the best photography around, and (present company excluded) some of the the best writing as well.
Movie References
When I think of the phrase “it’s over” – I always think of Animal House. However, as I was working on this article, I initially wanted to reference a different movie that also uses “it’s over” but in a much more dramatic way:
There’s that scene where the hard core Green Beret Colonel Trautman comes to the hick town to reign in his master warrior John Rambo, played of course, by Sly.
It really is a much better scene to convey the shake-them-into-reality feel that I wanted.
He hollers at Rambo:
“It’s over Johnny!”
I even was going to let that be the headline. But I thought it might confuse the reader into thinking he was screaming at me. Plus, Vietnam is not really a good comparison to second home real estate on Lake Martin. I didn’t want to stir up images of that.
Stallone fan or not, you have to admit that was a great movie, and an even better scene.
Even more, it launched an entire sub industry of survival knives.
I bought one at the Santuck Flea Market when I was 11 or 12. I still have it. I didn’t use it to fight any commies or even cauterize my own wounds but we do use it to dig up weeds in our yard.
Attack Of The Accountants
In my opinion, real estate advice that is based on folksy anecdotes is for chumps.
I mean to say – buying any sort of real estate, much less a waterfront home or lot on Lake Martin, is a big decision. You shouldn’t rely on other people’s whimsical stories or vague opinions as evidence to buy or not. In fact, this is one of the main reasons that I started this blog back in 2007 – to give hard facts…. verifiable evidence… the real story of what is going on with Lake Martin waterfront home, condo and lot sales.
That being said, please allow me to indulge in an anecdote once in four years. Please don’t take it seriously:
Accountants are attacking Lake Martin!
A couple of weeks ago I had a stretch of seven days where I showed homes to five different accountants. Two of them were actually married to each other. That’s right, a husband and wife CPA team. One of them joked that the CPA stands for “Can’t Pass Again.” Maybe, but in her case I doubt it. I majored in Accounting in college and after I graduated I didn’t sit for the CPA exam. I took and passed the CMA – which for me stood for “Scared of the CPA Exam.”
Spending college and the first phase of my career in the accounting world taught me that the cliches are mostly true. We accountants are a nerdy, math-brained, hyper analytical, careful with money bunch.
Here comes the anecdotal advice:
If a bunch of unrelated CPAs think that Lake Martin is a good buy, isn’t that a good sign?
Sure, it’s folksy, I know. But it’s a cute story. Think about it – isn’t it a good testimonial for Lake Martin? Like if your doctor actually exercised as much as she nags you to do? Like if your insurance agent actually bought those awful whole life policies at full retail prices instead of trying to sell these “great investments” to you? Like if the Turtle Man said, “Wow – there’s no way I’m swimming in that nasty pond,” would you swim in it?
Sit on the sidelines if you want, but, as your CPA will tell you, The Geeks Shall Inherit the Earth.
Lake Martin Home Sales Post Best May Since 2006
May, 2011, was a great month for waterfront home sales on Lake Martin. A total of 24 lakefront properties were sold on the entire lake – all brokerages, all agents. This is the highest number of Lake Martin homes sold in the month of May since 33 were sold in 2006. It beats the 22 sold in May of 2010 and 2009, the 14 sold in 2008, and 23 sold in 2007.
When I pull the numbers from the Lake Martin MLS*, I find that 2011 is trending to be yet another strong year for us, perhaps to be the third year in a row that we will have bested the prior year in waterfront home sales.
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Please note that in the above chart, and for the all charts going forward, I plan to quit showing 2005 – 2007 data, unless I am trying to make a specific point.
My reasons for this are:
1.) Visually, it’s hard (for me at least) to look at so many years on one chart. They just all mix together and lose context.
2.) It is my sincere belief (backed up by the numbers) that 2008 was the bottom of the Lake Martin real estate market. “The bubble” is old news. Instead of focusing on how off we are from 2005, I think the more pertinent topic to people interested in buying or selling on Lake Martin now is: how high up are we from the bottom? And, are we in danger of dipping back down again? To highlight these topics I need more space, and 2005 – 2007 must go.
I’m not throwing away the data or anything, I can always trot it back out of needed.
The below chart will show you the trend of waterfront homes sold on Lake Martin for 2011. We are trending about 10% above 2010, which suggests that we will end up selling about 50% more homes this year than in the bottom of 2008.
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See The Momentum
I am a firm believer that in order to understand the direction any real estate market, anywhere, at any time, one must study the comparison of year to year monthly sales. In other words, did the number of homes sold this month beat the same month last year? And how many months’ of victories have been tallied in, say, the last running 18 months? The answer to this will tell you that market’s momentum, and give you insight to the likely direction of pricing.
Yes, that’s right. I’m saying pricing trends follow sales trends. If home sales go up, so will prices. Dropping sales will drop prices.
What is the real estate sales trend for Lake Martin? Why am I so confident that we are at a low (relative) risk to a double dip? See this chart:
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The above is a chart of the numbers of waterfront homes sold on Lake Martin since January 2008. It shows the result of taking the current month homes sold and subtracting the same month in the prior year. Take January 2008 for example. It sold 5 fewer homes than January 2007, thus the -5 position on the chart. Ditto February 2008. But in June 2009 – we see it sold 19 more homes than June 2008, so it registers a big blip up. The key here is to focus on that zero line on the y (vertical) axis. Anything above that is “good” – aka an increasing sales momentum. The reverse is also true.
I have often cited this chart, but it is proof positive to me that Lake Martin is still on an upswing from the real estate bottom. Furthermore, you can see from the chart that in 2008 it swung from mostly negative numbers to mostly positive.
This is excellent news. We are very fortunate here.
Waterfront Lot Sales On Lake Martin
Another bit of big news is the huge increase in waterfront lot sales for 2011. Looking at the entire Lake Martin market, 4 lots were sold in May, 2011. This equaled May 2010. If we consider the entire calendar year, we are trending above 2010, which was a boom year for lot sales.
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Looking Ahead
Obviously, we have many more months to go so it doesn’t pay to get too ahead of myself. But I do think that so far we can draw two conclusions:
1.) Lake Martin waterfront home sales for 2011 will be strong again, matching or beating 2009 and 2010. Personally I would not be surprised if it ends up at 10 – 15% higher than last year. I think this also gives a little upward pressure to prices, if not this year, maybe 2012. Preliminary looks at June numbers look strong.
2.) Lake Martin lot sales in 2011 will again be strong. I think 2009 will be the bottom for lot sales, and it’s interesting to me that its bottom happened 12 months after the waterfront home sales bottomed. If lot pricing follows home pricing behavior, then we will see that 2011 will be the year that Lake Martin waterfront lot prices stop dropping.
One Final Tidbit
I always puzzle a bit when the numbers don’t match my gut. For the last 60 days or so something has been gnawing at me. We know that real estate prices are still low on Lake Martin. Check. We know that there are many waterfront homes for sale right now. Check. So:
Why am I having to hustle so hard on the last 3 or 4 deals I have done?
By hustle I don’t mean work in general. Not looking for pity. What I mean is that on these 
deals it seems like each one of them has had 2 or 3 other buyers at the sixteenth pole.
To drop the sports analogies, it seems like the “good deals” are being snapped up faster.
Am I correct? If so, that would mean that we have a high majority of homes that have been for sale for a really long time. The dogs (bad deals or junky situations) and the dreamers (sellers that are being ridiculous) are so numerous that it clouds judgement of the market as a whole. But is that a fact? And how can I go about proving or disproving my gut?
If anyone out there has a suggestion for metrics, please let me know.
Related Posts:
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2011 – Through April
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010 – Lot Sales
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review
All Lake Martin Market Reports
(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.
Lake Martin Spring 2011 Real Estate Sales Results
Lake Martin has seen strong waterfront home sales for the first four months of 2011.
Forgive me for the boring title to this post, but sometimes straightforward is better. It’s also tough to make up a headline that encompasses a four month period (January 1, 2011 – April 30, 2011). The reason I wait so late to give the first Lake Martin MLS* real estate market report is that sales are typically low in January and February. Plus, I around that time I am compiling the much more statistically significant 2010 year end review. This year is no exception.
I am pleased to see that the overall Lake Martin real estate market reflects my gut feeling of a very swift sales season for waterfront homes. Personally for me, and also for my fellow Lake Martin Voice Realty agent John Christenberry, 2011 has been a year of tremendous blessing thus far. We have been able to help more buyers and sellers this year than ever before, and we thank you for that!
2011 Looks Like Another Strong Year
I read and watch a lot of so called real estate experts that predict a “double dip” – or another wave of foreclosures, or some such other phantom menace that will upend the market once again. Who knows? Maybe they are right. But one thing’s for sure – if it does happen again, we will see the fundamental market indicators start to weaken. By “fundamental market indicators” I simply mean the important statistics we all should be watching: homes sold versus last year and average prices. We haven’t seen those indicators weaken since their low of approximately July of 2008.
Since we are in such a small real estate market here at Lake Martin can only look once a year at pricing trends in order to have any degree of certainty. And when we look at homes sold versus last year, we see a strong market.
In the first four months of 2011, 56 waterfront homes were sold through the Lake Martin MLS – this is almost 8% over the 2010 total of 52.
If you look at the waterfront home sales by month, you see that 2011 beat 2010 three out of four of those months:
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I realize with so many years’ worth of Lake Martin MLS sales on this graph, it’s starting to be a bit busy looking. I might drop anything pre 2008 in the future, just to make it more readable.
Here are the same monthly numbers in a chart, in case you are more of a numbers person than a graph person:
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When you look at cumulative sales, you can see that 2011 is already way ahead of the trough year of 2008, and the comeback year of 2009:
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Here are the numbers, once again taken from the Lake Martin MLS and filtered for waterfront home sales only:
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Obviously, it is way too early in the year to say for sure that we will beat 2008 again. But at the pace that Lake Martin is on currently, and when I look on the MLS now and see how many sales are pending, I think it’s pretty safe to say that 2011 will be a good year for home sales, at least as many as 2010. And, when a market, whether we are talking about Lake Martin homes or yearling thoroughbreds, beats the previous year, that’s the definition of a rising market.
Number Of Waterfront Homes For Sale On Lake Martin
Over the last six months Lake Martin has seen the typical, seasonal rise and fall of homes on the MLS that are “Active” – aka For Sale. At April 30, 2011, that number stood just under 500.
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It’s a total guess, but my feeling is that we will peak out at the low to mid 500s in 2011. We don’t have any big condo projects that are about to dump a lot of units on the market at once, that I know of.
Lake Martin Waterfront Lot Sales
As of April 30, 2011 has been the best year for waterfront lot sales since 2006 at Lake Martin.
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A total of 15 waterfront lots have been sold on Lake Martin in 2011, through April 30.
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In short, it looks like 2011 will be another good year for Lake Martin real estate. Barring a huge blip in the road, we look to avoid the low of 2008 and continue to look like a post real estate bubble market.
I am not sure what kind of evidence people need to finally move past the mentality that we are in a crisis market. If three straight years of strong sales don’t do it, what will?
Related Posts:
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Waterfront Lots
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review
All Lake Martin Market Reports
(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.
Lake Martin Waterfront Lot Sales: 2010 Year In Review
2010 proved to be a pivotal one for waterfront home sales on Lake Martin. But what about waterfront lot sales? Would they follow the pattern set by homes? That is, would our real estate market see an increase in number of lots sold, then finally a halt to the drops in prices?
Well, first we have to see an increase in the number of waterfront lots sold on Lake Martin in a year. Prior years have seen that number slide. So what happened in 2010?
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2010 was a great year on Lake Martin for waterfront lot sales. Lot sellers saw that the number of lots sold jumped from a bottom of 18 in 2008 and 19 in 2009 to a healthy 27 in 2010.
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Market Shift in Waterfront Lots
I think that this increase signals a market shift for Lake Martin waterfront lots. Tracking the number of lots sold should tell us that changes in prices are not far behind. We have studied this theory, and now seen it in practice with waterfront homes on Lake Martin.
While waterfront home sales bounced back in 2009, it took until 2010 until prices quit falling, as we saw in this market report.
Similarly, I think that 2011 lot sales will display that same trend. I think that if – that’s if - we see continued strong lot sales, prices will stop declining in 2011. Therefore my best guess is that it will be 2012 before we have any real chance of seeing lot prices of up. Obviously, 2011 sales will dictate that.
At the end of December, 2010, the Lake Martin MLS showed that 162 waterfront lots had the status of “Active” – aka are for sale. That means that at the sales rate of 27 per year of 2010, it would take 6 years to sell all of the lots. That’s 72 months of inventory. Tons. That’s my one reservation for predicting too quick a stop of slide on prices. The “months of inventory” number needs to be drastically reduced before the market will exert any upward pressure, in my opinion.
Waterfront Lots Sold: Price Distribution
It’s always interesting to see how the prices of lots sold on Lake Martin look.
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A Word On Price Per Waterfront Foot
In my opinion, the single BIGGEST screw up that Lake Martin buyers, flippers, appraisers, real estate agents, and bankers made in the “boom times” was estimating a lot’s worth at price per waterfront foot. Maybe it didn’t hurt the average lot buyer too bad but I can think of 3 or 4 specific incidents where people bought, say, 1,000 feet of Lake Martin shoreline and applied some vague price per square foot to it, and assumed they made money when they bought it.
Wrong.
Many of those parcels of land are in foreclosure now, but they are in the form of failed subdivisions. This method IS WAY TOO INACCURATE to be used. To wit:
In 2010 the least expensive waterfront lot was sold for $30,000 – a 100 foot lot north of the 280 River Bridge. Yes, $300 / waterfront foot.
One of 2010′s most expensive lots sold was one in the Russell Lands development of Trillium. The Lake Martin MLS stated it had about 427 waterfront feet and sold at $900,000 – or about $2,100 per waterfront foot.
$300 to $2,100 – that’s a pretty wide spread. Don’t be tempted to dumb things down and use averages. Avoid that method all together and use the comparable sales method like we do for homes.
Do you own a waterfront lot on Lake Martin and are wondering how this news affects you? Or maybe you are looking for one. We can help. Please contact us here or at 334 221 5862.
Related Posts:
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Waterfront Lots
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review
All Lake Martin Market Reports
(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.
2010 Lake Martin Home Prices Suggest Bottom Has Passed
Big News For Lake Martin Real Estate
Lake Martin waterfront home prices did not drop 2010, suggesting “the bottom” arrived sometime in 2009 or 2010.
About this time every year, I take an in depth look at waterfront home sales on Lake Martin as reported by the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors’ MLS(*) (of which I am a member). Prior years’ market reports have shown us that, in terms of number of waterfront homes sold, 2008 was the low point. 2009 showed an over 40% increase in homes sold at 194, and 2010 topped that amount at 195.
The final piece of the recovery was to figure out when prices would finally quit dropping. I think the below chart gives evidence that we are there.
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Once again, we see that the bell curve of prices remains the same in 2010 – essentially even with 2009 and 2005.
“Big deal” – you might say. Stagnant home prices? What’s to brag about? Plenty…..
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The First Step In Getting Out Of A Hole: Stop Digging
Anyone who follows Lake Martin real estate (or any market for that matter) and is who is watching for a change in the market focuses on two trends: number of waterfront homes sold and price of waterfront homes sold.
1. Number of Homes Sold Bottomed in 2008 – check this one off of the list. 2009 showed us by tallying over 40% more sales that 2008 was the bottom. Similarly strong sales in 2010 showed us that 2009 was no fluke.
2. Price of homes sold bottomed in 2009 – 2010 – I think we can check this one off, too. True, 2011 could see a drop in prices, but I doubt it. Why? Because of number #1 above. The number of homes sold is the leading indicator of average prices. We have been over and over Nicolai Kolding’s research that proves this. We have a lot of momentum with the number of waterfront home sales – too much momentum, in my opinion, to turn prices back down. At any rate, even if prices do drop in a double dip maneuver, we will have plenty of warning from the number of homes sold.
Why This Is Big News
To Buyers:
Quit waiting for the bottom. It is here. Make your move now before prices start going up again.
I can’t tell you how many times over the past 2 years I have helped someone find something they like, only to have their lake home plans be put on hold by the phrase “I think it’s going to get worse. I will wait.” Understandably, some buyers have hesitated based on fears that the Lake Martin real estate market will suffer more price cuts, and to these buyers, it was worth the wait.
No more. The day I have been predicting since 2009 is here. It’s hard to refute the numbers.
Are some Lake Martin waterfront homes, lots, or condos still overpriced? Absolutely. But that will be the case in any market, at any time. But the key here is that it should remove the fear that another market wide adjustment is looming. It also reassures us that as long as we keep focused on year to year monthly sales, we will have plenty of warning to market shifts.
To Sellers: The End Is Near
You can’t raise prices just yet, but it should be reassuring that at least the slide is over.
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See also:
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This is the first post in a series that will cover the 2010 Lake Martin Real estate market reports and statistics. I will do my best to present the data clearly.
Please stay tuned to my real estate blog to keep up with my future posts on the 2010 year end review.
As always – I welcome your comments below or on my Facebook page, or my Twitter feed, or my Youtube channel. While numbers are hard to dispute, everyone has their own opinion about what they mean. I know that I constantly learn a lot from everyone out there when we talk privately.
Please help me and the rest of the readers out, and comment publicly!
Related Posts:
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales – November 2010
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Waterfront Lots
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2009 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2008 – Year In Review
Lake Martin Real Estate Sales 2007 – Year In Review
All Lake Martin Market Reports
(*)Disclaimers: All of the above info was taken from the Lake Martin Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Accuracy is not guaranteed but deemed reliable. The above does not include sales by FSBOs or developers that sell privately and not through the MLS. But, I do think that the above represents a very large majority of all waterfront sales on Lake Martin, Alabama.
