Lake Martin Voice Realty
I originally wrote this article about Lake Martin waterfront real estate sales for LAKE Magazine’s August 24th edition. As summer winds down, we have a chance to look at the Lake Martin MLS sales numbers and try and get a picture of what has happened with waterfront sales so far this year . . .
If this month’s real estate market report was a Dukes of Hazzard episode, this would be the moment when Bo and Luke, driving furiously in the General Lee, round a curve and spot a “Bridge Out” sign that spans a muddy river. The camera would freeze on their expressions of “uh oh.” Waylon would say something witty, and the network would cut to commercial.
The question in the viewer’s mind: Will this be great? Or mind blowing?
With Roscoe in hot pursuit, there is little doubt that the Dukes would jump the creek and escape. But, there’s a slim chance that the car might roll three times while Luke shoots a dynamite-laden arrow at a falling tree, saving some innocent bystanders in its path. Incredible!
We would still be amazed if they merely jumped the creek.
We find ourselves in a similar spot this month as we review the Lake Martin real estate market reports.
I examined the Lake Martin Multiple Listings Service (MLS) waterfront home sales for Jan. 1, 2014, through July 31, 2014. These results include all agents in the area but none from private sales between individuals or developers.
After reviewing the numbers, I have no doubt that the Lake Martin area is going to have a great year. But will it be incredible? Will we see the most homes sold since the record year of 2005?
The careful reader will recall that last year, in 2013, we were asking the same questions (“Lake Martin Lots Selling Hot in 2013”). Through the end of July in 2013 there were 138 homes sold. That year did not end up beating the record of 2005, but it came close while trouncing the second place effort of 2006. If we fast forward to the present, we see that through July 31, 2014, 168 homes have been sold, or 22 percent above 2013. We are tracking above last year, which was the second best year on record. Not bad.
But what if we look at how many waterfront homes were sold at this same point in 2005? Through July 31, all agents, all brokerages in 2005 sold 178 homes on the MLS, which is about 6 percent greater than this year. We are not on a winning pace, but we are close. We are stalking the leader and coming down the stretch.
What about waterfront lots?
The year 2013 was a record breaker for waterfront lots sold on the Lake Martin MLS. For the entire year, area agents combined sold 71 lots, whipping the previous record of 55 in 2005 and almost doubling the prior year of 38 in 2012.
Are Lake Martin waterfront lot sales still hot in 2014? In a word, yes.
The year 2014 is tracking just behind 2013. Through July 31 last year, we had sold 37 waterfront lots in the Lake Martin MLS. At the same date this year, 34 had been sold. I think that a difference of only three is not much to worry about, statistically, so it’s safe to say we are on pace with last year. At any rate, we have all but guaranteed that 2014’s lot sales total will best 2012 and 2011. I also think it is safe to say that this year will beat 2005.
So we return to the original question: Will 2014 be great, or will it be incredible? We will know in a few months. My guess is that, on the home sales front, we will come really close to 284 waterfront homes sold but will not beat it. There are 60 homes under contract at this writing, but not enough inventory, I think, to beat the record. Similarly, I think Lake Martin will see very close to 71 lot sales, but not materially more.
Don’t be disappointed if Luke doesn’t fire a dynamite-tipped arrow, we still will have had a great year if sales approach those numbers.
Kids like Lake Martin. They like waterfront homes on Lake Martin. And they are naturals at giving their testimonials on video – no coaching necessary.
This video below was sent to me by my buyers, the new owners of a lake house in Parker Creek. Their daughter volunteered to give their family’s testimonial for me, and I think she does a great job. Most adults cringe when asked to be in front of a camera, even if it is just my iPhone. The fact that some agree to do it, I hope, is proof that they valued my help in the transaction. But a kid? Why didn’t I think of this before?
And on the flip side, I’ll bring back this video from 2010, where a mom (and friend of our family) talks about why she, as a parent, loves Lake Martin. There’s a lot of wisdom in what she says – see if you agree:
So – if you’re looking for a way to bond with your kids, try Lake Martin. As a full time Lake Martin real estate agent, I’m happy to hook you up with a home or lot here.
When selling Lake Martin waterfront real estate, the worlds of work and fun often collide to produce a work day like last Friday at the lake.
As I’ve mentioned here before, Alabama Power dropped prices on the lots in Phase II of Shady Bay a few weeks ago, and there has been a lot of interest from buyers. One particular buyer was referred to me by Lake Martin homeowner and architect, Bryan Jones. (Bryan was recently featured is LAKE Magazine for his design of Lake Martin’s first Passive House.) This buyer was interested in two lots in Shady Bay, and wanted more info on water depth in front of both lots. Bryan – always looking for an adventure – asked if I wanted to come and help him measure the water depth for this client.
But he was not interested in using the depth finder on my boat. As sophisticated as he is in his fancy Atlanta office, he wanted to take these measurements using his kayak, his tape measure, some wooden stakes, a piece of paper and a red ink pen. Old School. We recruited our wives to help.
Step one of this highly technical procedure was to place some stakes on the shore – on either edge of each lot, and in the approximate middles. We then stretched a long tape measure out over the water and took three different depth readings (with a yellow measuring tape). We picked increments of around 20′, around 50′ and around 60′ based on Alabama Power’s shoreline guidelines (linked here) and the HOA’s rules specific to Shady Bay. It rained on us a little, but such adventures are not thwarted by a little rain.
The measurements we took helped my client make his decision, and he submitted an offer on the lot.
So why go through all this trouble, when we could have just breezed through Shady Bay and gotten a reading from my boat’s depth finder? Because we love the lake and the lake is fun. If you are ever around Bryan and his wife, Allison, their passion for Lake Martin adventures is contagious. That’s what a lot of us seek when we come here – a chance to slow down and be a part of an authentically fun moment.
If you’re interested in Lake Martin real estate, I’d love to get to help you, too. I’m a full time Lake Martin realtor and I’m up for the adventure. I sell across the entire lake, and I sell nothing but Lake Martin. Give me a call at 334 221 5862, email me at john @ lakemartinvoice.com, or click here to contact me.
Yes. Lake Martin is now bigger AND smaller.
When I talk to people about Lake Martin waterfront real estate, they are usually amazed by the size of our lake – 770 MILES of shoreline is the number I’ve told people for as long as I can remember. That’s a huge lake, especially when you consider only 30% of the shoreline is developed.
But a new measurement is showing we have even more shoreline than that! 880 miles to be exact. According to an article in the Alexander City Outlook, Alabama Power’s new measurements show the lake has MORE shoreline but LESS water (measured in acres) than previous estimates revealed. I was once a pre-engineering major, and among the many reasons I washed out was the fact that I can’t grasp how you can have more shoreline but less acreage. Nevertheless, this is interesting news!
Everyone adjust your Lake Martin trivia accordingly.
Also – according to this article, we may not know whether FERC has approved the new winter water level request until next summer. So don’t expect an answer anytime soon. These. things. just. take. a. long. time. To read more about the relicensing of Martin Dam, check out the links below:
If you’re considering a Lake Martin real estate purchase at Lake Martin, give me a call. I’d love to share my knowledge, my experience, my trials, and my errors, with a good bit of Lake Martin trivia thrown in on the side. No extra charge! John Coley 334221 5862, or click here to contact me.
What does it take to sell a waterfront Lake Martin home in ten days? That’s what happened with this Little Kowaliga property. Since this home was a Lake Martin Voice Realty listing, I wanted to share this success story with you. I also brought the buyers to the home, so I’m familiar with both parties. While it is certainly not the norm to have a contract within ten days on Lake Martin, it’s a worthy goal. So let’s unpack how this sale worked and see what lessons it offers.
1.) The sellers had their lake home in great selling condition.
It looked good. It was uncluttered, it was depersonalized, it was clean – all the tips you see on HGTV. This is huge, and it does not always happen. You’d be surprised. Let’s face it, people buy waterfront homes on Lake Martin to have fun – and a lot of times having fun gets in the way of keeping a tidy home.
2.) I had buyers who were ready to buy a Lake Martin home.
A large part of a realtor’s commission should be access to that agent’s “inventory” of current buyers who want to buy a Lake Martin home RIGHT NOW. Not maybe, not hypothetically, but right now. I had a buyer who was ready. This couple was familiar with Lake Martin already, and had been looking both online and in person. They were well researched on the Lake Martin market, and knew what they wanted.
Realistically, realtors do not always have that perfect buyer already queued in the wings, but another resource a realtor should bring to the table is his or her ability to go out and find other buyers. That takes a strong marketing presence. That’s why I blog about Lake Martin – ninety percent of buyers look on web, and for the vast majority that is the first move they make, so I think our internet presence should be a big priority.
A strong web presence (website, youtube channel, pictures) is an absolute must. But you can have the prettiest pictures in the world and it doesn’t mean squat if it doesn’t get found. Your agent MUST have a site that can stand out of the noise of the web and get found by Google. That’s why I blog about Lake Martin in general, and real estate specifically. The search engines recognize this site as a strong resource, and visitors to my site (thank you very much) are the proof in the pudding. We have been blessed with about a million hits from literally hundreds of thousands of unique visitors since I have been blogging (2007).
3.) Maybe most importantly, the sellers had an honest assessment of pricing.
What is a home worth? Really? In spite of all of the real estate info available to buyers and sellers online these days, buying or selling a home is still a pretty personal transaction. Objectivity can be difficult. The sellers of this Little Kowaliga home had tested the market for 252 days at a higher price with another listing company. They were willing to try again at a price more closely aligned with what our market was telling them. The result was a sale. In ten days.
4.) The media.
And specifically, a huge amount of pictures. Most buyers are coming from out of town and can’t swing by the home during lunch to check it out. For obvious reasons, I want Lake Martin to be known for its awesome real estate marketing. I want people to be blown away by the care we take to sell Lake Martin. I want the info on all of our MLS properties to be readily available, completely thorough, and of the highest quality. So we select the best forms of marketing and then get out of the way (No sassy glamor shots of me with my arms folded. No talk about my “team.” People want a lake home, not an agent). In this case, we chose seventy two quality pictures of the Little Kowaliga home and put them on the MLS. And on our website. And on Flickr.
I am still surprised, however, that in this age of no cost digital pics, I still see agents in the MLS that mail in their media efforts. I see homes with five pictures of a property, two of them are out of focus, and one contains their thumb. I don’t get it. Let me say a word to people who are thinking about selling their Lake Martin property – check out the past listings of the agents you are considering. First of all – can you even find their listings? If you can’t, how do you expect a buyer to find them? And if you do find them, do you see vague directions? Lackluster verbal descriptions? Poorly lit and out of focus pictures? And I will say it – A TOTAL LACK OF VIDEO?
Why do you think this agent will do anything different for your property?
It shouldn’t matter what kind of property you are selling, I believe it is up to us agents to put in 100% effort to sell your waterfront properties. I’ll never be confused with Ansel Adams or Steven Spielberg, but I can say that I will do my best to give not 5, but 45 clear pics of any property I have the honor of listing.
5.) Video video video.
We put out a great full motion video tour of the home. Not a slideshow of the same MLS pics set to muzak. We’re currently working on incorporating aerial shots of the properties into the video home tours, and that looks really cool. The video below is the one we made for the Little Kowaliga home; we try to squeeze every possible bit of info about the property into these videos in under 3 minutes. We want buyers to know exactly what the seller is offering, with no surprises once they arrive at the home in person.
We also did a quick aerial video of the outside of the Little Kowaliga home. It’s amazing how much additional info you can gain from this vantage:
10 days on the market was all it took in this case. Like I said, this is not the norm for Days On Market, but the transaction is more likely to move quickly if all of these factors are considered. And of all of these, an honest assessment of pricing is probably going to be the biggest factor. I love Blizzards from Dairy Queen a whole lot, but I will not buy one for $10, even if it is the best looking Blizzard I have ever seen, and it is 105 degrees outside. Its value has been set in the open market and I know I can get a comparable Blizzard for less on down the road.
So – Lake Martin homeowners, are you considering listing your home with a Lake Martin realtor? If you are, and you like what you’ve seen here, I’d love the opportunity to talk with you about your property. And if you are a buyer, I’d love to help you thoroughly scour the lake inventory and gather as much info as possible on homes that may meet your needs. If you’re interested in a listing that is not mine, and you feel like you need more info, I make private video tours of other agent’s listings and provide you with a private YouTube link. Call me. John Coley 334 221 5862 or john (at) lakemartinvoice (dot)com.
HGTV fans everywhere discovered Lake Martin last night!
House Hunters featured Lake Martin on it’s Memorial Day 2014 show. As a Lake Martin realtor, I’ve talked to people from all over the world about Lake Martin’s waterfront real estate – Africa, Turkey, Canada, Argentina, Mexico, and Red Hill, Alabama. Lake Martin truly has a global reach, and this House Hunters episode is proof of that.
I’m assuming that everyone with a TV knows the premise of House Hunters. I admit, I’ve had daydreams of bringing America to Lake Martin via this show. I’m all about real estate video – I currently have 356 videos about Lake Martin real estate on my LakeMartinVoice Realty YouTube Channel! But I was not the realtor on this House Hunters episode. Erin Johnson of RealtySouth’s Auburn / Lake Martin office really did a fantastic job representing our area, so congratulations, Erin! (The episode will air again on June 29 at 7:00pm eastern if you didn’t catch it last night.)
A quick synopsis:
A couple from Helena, Alabama, scour the lake for a low maintenance home for their family of five. Hubby Paul wants a “fish camp style” home, (which is what I call a cabin) with a big yard, and Neely wants a “cottage style” home with granite counter tops. Will they ever agree?
After the show’s introduction of characters, it gets interesting. Their price range is the ever popular $350-400k range, and as the couple makes their way through the three homes on their list, I think, “I have two homes for sale right now that are almost identical to two of the homes this family has selected!” Uncanny.
So for all of you who enjoyed last night’s show, and to all of you who are currently house hunting at Lake Martin, I’m going to do a quick Lake Martin Voice Realty version of House Hunters right here! To follow the sequence of the Lake Martin episode . . .
First – The cottage style house with all the upgrades.
Paul and Neely walked through a home in The Village. That home happens to be a door or two away from my listing, 52 Cottage Loop, the good news is it’s the lowest priced home in The Village right now, has a great view, and it’s a toothbrusher (no updates needed, just bring your toothbrush):
For all of the listing information on this home, please see its page on my blog: 52 Cottage Loop in The Village on Lake Martin.
Next up, the affordable, family friendly, low maintenance home with the big yard.
Paul and Neely saw (and bought) a home with the exact floor plan as a home I have listed, 108 Leisure Lane. It is virtually the same house on a different lot, and my listing has more shoreline (for a slightly higher price). For those of you who saw the show last night, the similarities are going to be almost eerie. Paul and Neely, don’t you agree?
And again, because it is a Lake Martin Voice Realty listing, it already has its own VIDEO TOUR! I even have my own in-house Suzanne Whang style host to narrate each tour. No need to wait for the next House Hunters episode:
For all the listing info on this home: 108 Leisure Lane on Lake Martin.
And Third: The architect-designed camp style lake home with amazing finishes and charming detail.
Similarly, for my Lake Martin Voice Realty house hunting tour, I chose an architect designed home that is not currently on the MLS. I have a private video tour of a Bill Ingram water access house in The Ridge. I don’t mean to exclude anyone, but I can’t post my video tour here because it’s not my listing. But yes, I do make videos of other agent’s homes for my clients and give them a private email link to view the home on YouTube. So I need to be your real estate agent to give that kind of access. It is exclusive.
I end this post with two calls to action today, instead of my usual one:
1) If you are interested in Lake Martin real estate, buying or selling, give me a call. I help buyers and sellers at Lake Martin, 100% of the time. It’s my area of expertise. Give me a call at 334 221 5862, or email me at john (at) lakemartinvoice (dot) com, or click here to contact me.
2) If you are from HGTV, here’s my shameless self promo: You’ve seen how picturesque and fun Lake Martin is, and hey – we’re only 2 hours from Atlanta. I know you have studios there! Knoxville is not far, either! I am not afraid to be on camera, and I will not charge extra for my slow southern drawl. And I have all kinds of interesting clients with great stories to tell. HGTV – you may also call please me at 334 221 5862, or email me at john (at) lakemartinvoice (dot) com, or click here to contact me. Let’s make this happen!
I took my first official working boat trip a few weeks ago, right in the middle of the “greening” phase of spring at Lake Martin. Everything is that vibrant, exciting green, and the sky is that clear bright blue – it’s beautiful.
From the boat, I took the pictures below of a great lot I have listed for sale in the Smith Mountain area, Lot 4 Phase 2 Smith Mountain Drive. I love this lot because of it’s unique location.
The future owners of this lot will have a true year-round Lake Martin home. In the summer, hop in the boat enjoy all the traditional fun and sun activities. In the fall, winter and spring, get outside on the Smith Mountain trails. This lot is within walking distance to some of the most awesome hiking trails in our area. Outdoor activity during all seasons, just outside of the doorstep. And the future owners can bring their own builder and design this doorstep, too!
For all of the listing info on this lot, click here. If you have any questions, or would like to know more about Lake Martin lots and real estate in general, give me a call at 334 221 5862, or email me at john at lakemartinvoice dot com.
This post is directed to Lake Martin waterfront property buyers – don’t waste your time with Zillow, Trulia, Homes.com, Realtor.com and their ilk (ZTR). They are terribly inaccurate.
This post is also to potential sellers of Lake Martin waterfront property. Don’t insist on having your home “featured” there. They stink, it’s a false hope, and they don’t generate good leads. It’s like wanting to be advertised on a billboard inside a smelly, run down indoor mall. Why would you bother?
If you want the most reliable, most accurate, most timely Lake Martin waterfront real estate information, search our local Lake Martin Area MLS. Period.
3rd party syndicator sites like Zillow, Trulia, Homes.com and even Realtor.com rank high on some internet real estate searches for Lake Martin. But does that make them truly helpful for buyers and sellers? If you’re not familiar with how these websites work, they try to be the MLS for the entire nation by getting content (listings of homes for sale) for free from agents, and then turning around and charging the same agents to advertise on their site in a circular, almost extortive calculation. I don’t want to supply the rope and then pay the hangman, so I don’t advertise on any of these syndicators.
Plus, at Lake Martin, these sites just don’t work. They merely cause confusion. They pull most of their info from County tax records, and since we are in a rural area, the info is not that pure, and our counties don’t report sales data.
Let me show you a quick example. I did a Google search for one of Lake Martin Voice Realty’s new listings, 44 Fairwinds Circle in Windermere. (This home is an awesome 6 bedroom, 4 bath, 4,457 sq foot home with custom hardwood floors and mill work throughout. It was built in 2007 and is listed for $649k.) Google’s search results had Trulia, Zillow, Realtor.com and Homes.com all making the coveted first page of search results. They must have it going on, right?
But you tell me if any of this information is helpful . . .
Here’s what I found on Trulia: According to Trulia, 44 Fairwinds Circle is a ZERO BEDROOM – 2 bathroom, 1,665 sq ft home with wood siding. Hey home buyer – can I interest you in this ZERO BEDROOM home? Awesome ! Yes! Sign me up!!!!
Here’s Zillow: if you trust Zillow, you would be led to believe that 44 Fairwinds Circle is a 1,665 sq ft home with unknown floor coverings, and a “Zestimate” of $595, 130. Here, Zillow carries along the ZERO BEDROOM concept that apparently is sweeping the nation. Wow! How cool! How Techy! How totally cutting edge that they are able to sit up in Oregon or wherever they are and tell us all how much a ZERO BEDROOM home costs in Windermere.
And here’s Homes.com: The same 2 bath, 1,665 sq ft home for around $711,500. ZERO BEDROOMS, of course. And why not pay $116,370 more? If you would like to pay $711k, I won’t hold you back. A zero bedroom home is priceless. You should know that by now.
And even Realtor.com can’t get it straight: 44 Fairwinds Circle is listed as 4A Fairwinds Circle (the lot number) with 4,728 sq ft built in 2008. If you look at all of these pages, notice how little space is devoted to actual data on the home versus ads for internet service, moo.com (??) and Blu dot. The thing that especially galls me about Realtor.com is that it is owned by the National Association of Realtors. Yes. You would think that this site would try and do a good job to be accurate, and then not turn around and extort advertising dollars by playing one agent off of another in a cruel, Leone-esque Mexican Standoff, – > (“What, Agent A, don’t you want to be listed as The Awesome Agent for this zip code? Well you ‘d better pony your money up because Agent B is bidding against you. Agent B – you’d better pay us because Agents A and C are vying for your coveted spot. “) Does that add value to the process? Also, Realtor.com only allows a few precious photos to be displayed unless you pay them to advertise. Check it out:
Are you finding these sites helpful, or are they adding confusion to the search? I know the small detail on these screenshots may be hard to read, but what you’ll find is virtually the same incorrect information about the home on all of these websites. A home with zero bedrooms and two bathrooms for $711,500k? Does that make any sense?
Contrast that with the information found inside the Lake Martin MLS.
Most local Multiple Listing Services are closed services, meaning they are not searchable by Internet search engines. Our Lake Martin MLS is no exception, and contains only firsthand data on properties entered by the listing agents themselves. (And if we want to continue working, we’d better get it right.) Local agents know the homes and have spoken extensively with the owners. There is no “noise” from 3rd party syndicators to sift through, and you know exactly whom to call if you want to know more.
Here’s the screen shot for 44 Fairwinds as it appears in the MLS search. The text is going to be hard to read here because there is so much information on the page, and it may look a little basic because it’s missing the huge ads for mortgage providers and the ginormous google map. But, I agree with Forrest Gump’s mama, pretty is as pretty does. If the so-called information that currently resides on ZTR sites is shiny and glitzy, does it matter that it’s so inaccurate as to be useless? You bet. I will take basic and correct any day. Granted, the MLS info is only as correct as the agent that enters it. But at least in the Lake Martin MLS you are getting the info from the direct source, and with its full complement of ALL the pictures, video, and related media:
Our Lake Martin MLS entry for 44 Fairwinds Circle contains the data above, plus access to 93 photos of the property, our VIDEO TOUR of the property, and a map. It’s thorough, it’s complete, and it is the most current information available.
So save yourself time and confusion: search for Lake Martin real estate on the Lake Martin MLS. Realtors have great incentive to display quality information for their listings. And if you need more info, call a local realtor. And if you’re calling a local, realtor, I’d love for you to call me. John Coley 334 221 5862 or john (at) lake martin voice (dot) com.
Will I Ever Eat My Words And Pay ZTR?
Quite possibly. I can envision I day where I will be forced to pay Zillow, Trulia, and / or Realtor.com for the privilege of participating in a Mexican Standoff with other agents at Lake Martin. I know plenty of agents that I respect highly that are in other markets around the nation that do. Sadly, they must pay the hangmen and supply the rope, and they grit their teeth when they pay them each month because they know it’s not worth it and it benefits neither buyers nor sellers. So, I will never say never. But I can say, right now, while I am still beating or competing well with the third party syndicators, I will not.
Want more info on this subject, and proof that big brokerages in big markets are sick of ZTR as well? See this video: Abbott Realty They are in San Diego, and figured this out in 2012. Since then, there have been more brokerages and MLSs to opt out of ZTR than opt in.
The Lake Martin waterfront real estate market is a unique animal. I try hard to provide meaningful market reports, built on math and not assumptions. I recently sent out my 2013 Year End Review via email. In it, I asked for suggestions on how to improve my report.
I received two very interesting emails, and thought I would publish them here. I would like to once again thank these readers for their input, and continue to ask for suggestions, and challenges, to my published numbers and analysis. With such a small number of homes sold each year, it’s critical to have good information. You won’t ever hurt my feelings if you think I am wrong or looking at something the wrong way. On the contrary, I would love to hear from you.
Here is the first email:
On Feb, 2014, “Paul” wrote:
Just read though your email – great to see sales and construction activity continue to climb. You mentioned that you do not necessarily see price appreciation…..yet. Presumably you have the aggregate of sales dollars per annum. Does that not evidence any increase in avg sale/property?
Just curious because I was wondering how much the rate environment (which is still very favorable) could have an impact on discretionary/second home real estate purchases.
And my response:
Begin forwarded message:
From: John Coley
Subject: Re: sales data
Date: March, 2014
Hey “Paul,” thanks for your email. I don’t really look at aggregate sales dollar figures because I am not sure it is representative. For instance, the aggregate sales data in 2013 is going to be about double of 2008. But – 263 homes were sold in 2013 compared to 137 homes in 2008. If you looked at aggregate sales data you would be tempted to conclude that values have doubled since 2008, which certainly does not meet the smell test. I don’t know of any market anywhere that has doubled since 2008. In fact, I think values dropped slightly in 09 and have been steady since then. My bell curve chart and real world examples (homes bought in 08 that are for sale now) confirm that. But it is certainly interesting to consider.
As to interest rates – I don’t think rates mean a hill of beans to the average buyer. I think their interest rate sensitivity is zero. I have never run the numbers, but now that I know how to do so (I plan to do it like I did for WF footage and lot size) – I might try it. Stay tuned to my blog in the next few weeks, I am publishing the math behind my studies of price per WF foot.
Great to hear from you!
And the second email:
You asked for input on your charts, so being a CPA I couldn’t resist giving some! The chart you are using to determine whether prices are increasing I don’t think is accurate for that purpose. For example, let’s say in 2014 a lot of people in the $700,000 price range bought a lot of houses, let’s say 25% of all 2014 sales – the chart would of course spike at the $700,000 level indicating only that more people are buying houses at that level than they did in previous years. If the $700,000 buyers were buying houses that were previously sold for significantly less (i.e. a big price increase had occurred), the chart would not indicate that.
I don’t know if you have the data, but I believe a very meaningful chart re: price fluctuations would be to calculate the dollar sales per square foot, by subdivision, by year. That would certainly capture any price fluctuations. Since the subdivisions are all in different categories (i.e. comparing the Ridge to Trillium, or Blount’s Point area to Willow Point) cannot be meaningfully done.
I would love to see a chart that lists sales dollars per square foot, by subdivision, by year. Can you get your hands on that kind of data?
Many thanks for your very valuable research.
From: John Coley
Subject: Re: Lake Martin – February 2014
Date: March, 2014
Hey “C.E.”, thanks for your email. I appreciate a fellow numbers guy giving me input. I am always on the lookout to build a better mousetrap and to similarly test assumptions of my own.
Re: per square foot – I think this stat is extremely misleading at the lake. The reason is that so much of a home’s value is tied up in the lot. PSF analysis works well in things like condos where everything is the same, but lake property is way too diverse and has too high a percentage of overall value tied up in the lot. See a post I did on my blog, way back in 2007:
There is zero correlation between sales price and square footage of home.
In that post I also mention the price per waterfront foot of a lot and its deceptive nature. Coincidentally, I just ran the numbers on that using 2013 sales. I will be posting the results on my blog. I did a scatter plot, and a correlation coefficient calculation. Where +1 is a perfectly direct relationship, 0 is no relationship, and -1 is a perfect indirect relationship, I found that waterfront footage only has about a 0.47 correlation, or classified as a secondary correlation by statisticians. Interestingly, the size of the lot (overall acreage) has a zero correlation. This math confirmed for me that when I am valuing lots, and therefore valuing homes, the most accurate method is to start with a comparable sales method, looking at similar location, view, privacy, and water quality. I secondarily adjust for WF footage, and do not adjust at all for acreage.
I will take a look at your suggestion of analysis by neighborhood. I am doing that already for a neighborhood report, but looking at PSF data on homes in a neighborhood will vary even more greatly because of our small sample pool. That’s why I only do price analysis once a year – in Willow Point there were only 8 homes sold in the last 12 months, from 600k to 2.2 million. When your sample pool is that small, it won’t normalize easily, and one home sale can thrown the whole thing in a wreck and make year to year comparisons inaccurate at worst. But all this does make for interesting discussion!!!
Regarding your example of the 700,000 category – if you look at the most recent example, in 2011 there was a spike in the over 1 million range. You can see the hump up there. Spikes like this are the prime reason I broke it all down to price strata, and also to look a year’s worth of sales. I am trying to normalize out the outliers. But again, great food for thought! Thanks!
Thanks for your email!!
It is so humbling that people read my market reports, much less take the time to comment on them and get me to really think about the conclusions I draw. It helps more than you know. A huge thanks for your feedback, and please keep it coming!
C.E., in a later email, suggested that I look at the percentage of and direction of change in per square foot pricing on Lake Martin waterfront home sales. His point was that while the raw number might not be useful, the direction thereof might be, kind of like the DJI in the stock market. I think this is a cool idea and worth some further study!
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